基于多方合作博弈及梯级化的电能替代效益分析

Benefit Analysis of Electric Energy Substitution Based on Multi-player Cooperative Game and Cascade Model

电能替代对提高电能在终端能源消费中的比重,推动节能减排具有重大意义。首先,针对潜在群体化用户参与电能替代项目的次序问题,提出了用户群梯级化替代机制。其次,构建了基于多方合作博弈理论的电能替代效益分析模型,并在Pareto面上进行Nash均衡分析。最后,以云南曲靖地区以电替煤烤烟项目为例,采用改进交互式NSGA-II算法得到Nash均衡解。仿真结果表明,被替代的用户群密集程度是博弈中影响各方收益的重要因素。经算例验证,所提的博弈方法可有效求解各参与者的均衡策略,同时可推动电能替代项目的开展,并为相关政策的制定提供科学依据。

Electric energy substitution is of great significance in increasing the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption and promoting energy saving and emission reduction.Firstly,aiming at the sequence of potential group of consumers participating in power substitution projects,this paper proposes a cascade substitution mechanism.Secondly,the benefit analysis model of power substitution based on multi-player cooperative game theory is constructed,and Nash equilibrium analysis is carried out on Pareto plane.Finally,the project of replacing coal with electric power for flue-cured tobacco in Qujing County,Yunnan Province is analyzed,and a Nash equilibrium solution is obtained with improved interactive NSGA-II algorithm.The simulation results show that the density of the substituted group of consumers is an important factor affecting the profits of all parties in the game.Examples show that the proposed game method can effectively solve the equilibrium strategies of each participant,and provide scientific basis for promoting the implementation of power substitution and policy making.