基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通运营安全风险及防控研究

Risk Analysis,Prevention and Control of Urban Rail Transit Operation System Based on Bayesian Network

收集分析了64起城市轨道交通运营风险事件案例,基于事故致因过程分析,提取出28个风险元,并建立事故致因链;运用贝叶斯网络构建城市轨道交通事故风险互动关系的拓扑结构,对风险互动网络进行影响强度分析与灵敏性分析,结果发现人为与设备因素易引发系统其他风险乃至安全事件的发生,其中信息交互滞后、信号道岔设备故障、制动设备故障这3个风险元对整个安全运营的系统稳定状态有着较大的影响;最后,从人、机、环、管4个维度提出了风险防控策略,尤其针对关键敏感风险提出了安全管理对策。

This study collected and analyzed 64 cases of urban rail transit operation risk incidents.Based on the analysis of the cause of the accident,28 risk items were extracted,and the accident cause chain was established;the Bayesian network was used to construct the risk interaction relationship of urban rail transit accidents.The influence intensity analysis and sensitivity analysis of the risk interaction network found that human and equipment factors likely cause other risks and even safety incidents in the system.Among them,the three risk factors of switch equipment failure of the signal system,brake equipment failure of the vehicle system,and information exchange lag have a considerable impact on the stability of the entire safe operation system.Finally,risk prevention and control strategies are proposed from the four dimensions of human,machine,environment,and management,especially safety management countermeasures for key sensitive risks.