电网规模的异速生长规律初探

Preliminary Study on Allometric Scaling Laws of Power Grid Scale

电网作为现代社会的关键基础设施和能源互联网的枢纽,其发展一直得到极大关注。一种从系统论的角度评判电网规模发展本质机理的方法有助于更科学、准确地对电力系统的发展路径进行决策。文中提出一种基于异速生长规律的电网规模发展变化规律研究方法。首先引入适用于复杂网络的异速生长规律,解释电力系统符合用异速生长规律研究的要素,然后对电网的发展演化展开了基于异速生长规律的理论分析。从公开的电网模型数据库中获取大量电网模型数据,对其进行数据分析可以验证电网规模的变化遵循异速生长规律,并呈亚线性增长。这意味着电网的建设应在到达一定阶段后更加注重内生增长,以获得更健康的发展,而不应无止境地扩张其规模。

The power grid,whose development has drawn great attention,is serving as an essential infrastructure in the modern society and a hub of the Energy Internet.A method for evaluating the nature and mechanism of the power grid scale development from the perspective of system theory helps determine the evolution path of the power system more scientifically and accurately.Therefore,a research method for the evolution law of the power grid scale is proposed based on allometric scaling laws.The paper first introduces allometric scaling laws suitable for different complex networks,and explains that power system conforms to key elements of researching by allometric scaling laws.Then the development and evolution of the power grid is analyzed based on the theoretical analysis by allometric scaling laws.After collecting massive data for power grid models from online database of public grid models and analyzing the collected data,it can be verified that the evolution of the power grid scale comforms to allometric scaling laws and shows sublinear increase.This means that when the construction of power grid reaches a certain stage,much attention should be paid to the endogenous growth of the power grid for healthier development,instead of expanding its scale endlessly.