联邦制是美国政治的死穴吗?——通过新冠疫情防控表现进行的观察

Is Federalism the Achilles Heel of American Politics:An Observation on the Handling of COVID-19 Pandemic

从严格意义上讲,并不能说联邦制度是美国防疫失败的本质原因。但美国的防疫因其联邦体制的固有性设计,必然需要一个有能力、有威信,且愿意担责任、尊重科学专业意见、做事顾及后果和影响的联邦政府,统筹、兼顾、协调并强力支持各州防疫以齐头并进,而当这样一个角色明显缺失或不作为时,美国的联邦体制可能正好反过来会对疫情的持续延烧产生某种"助燃"效应。本文通过分析发现,即便是在以强调地方权力而著称的美国联邦制里,中央仍需有一定统筹规划之权,且必得负起协调诸方之责,方得统御全局,应对如新冠疫情一类的突发公共危机事件。当联邦政府缺位或不作为时,仅凭地方一域之力,难以真正有效遏制态势、稳定局面和摆脱问题。此外,笔者分析了2020年美国大选与美国疫情间的关系,发现各"摇摆州"内,若一州为"红营"州长执政,11月大选时确诊病例排名低于或持平该州人口排名,则该州较可能"翻红",如俄亥俄州、佛罗里达州;若一州为"红营"州长执政,11月大选时确诊病例排名高于该州人口排名,则该州较有可能"翻蓝",如佐治亚州、亚利桑那州。

Strictly speaking,it cannot be said that the federal system is the essential reason for the failure of the US campaign against the COVID-19 pandemic.However,due to the institutional design of the federal system,the United States’epidemic prevention and control campaign inevitably require a federal government that is capable,and willing to take political responsibility,respect scientific and professional opinions,and take care of the consequences and impacts of its action.This Federal government needs to perfectly coordinate and effectively support all state’s respective move.When such a federal government is missing,the U.S.federal system may in turn have a certain"combustion-supporting"effect on the continued spread of the pandemic.This paper finds that even in the American federal system,which is wellknown for its emphasis on local power,the federal government still needs to retain certain level of planning and coordination capacity in order to oversee the national effort in dealing with situations such as the public emergency caused by COVID-19.It is difficult for state governments to effectively deal with problems when the federal government is absent or negligent.After analyzing the relationship between the 2020 US presidential election and how the pandemic was being handled,the author discovers that swing states with Republican governors will likely remain red,as demonstrated by Ohio and Florida,if their national rankings by the number of COVID cases are lower than or equal to their respective population rankings;and the swing states with Republican governors will likely turn blue if their COVID cases rankings surpass their population rankings,as in the cases of Georgia and Arizona.