基于贝叶斯统计的考古年代学研究——以汤家岗遗址为例

A Study of Archaeochronology Based on Bayesian Statistics,Taking Tangjiagang Site as an Example

运用贝叶斯统计分析,在OxCal软件中对测年数据进行建模分析,已成为^(14)C年代研究的标准方法。贝叶斯统计分析的基础是运用地层学和类型学建立的考古遗存相对年代分期,只有具有可靠相对年代关系的^(14)C数据才能在OxCal中建模分析,年代模型有连续型、断裂型和重叠型三种。我们以《安乡汤家岗:新石器时代遗址发掘报告》公布的资料为基础,通过地层学和类型学研究将汤家岗遗址分为两个考古学文化六个阶段,对26个具有相对年代关系的^(14)C数据进行建模分析,用一致性函数验证文化分期和年代模型,并运算得出考古学文化及其期段的绝对年代。无论是陶器类型学研究,还是贝叶斯年代统计分析,均证明汤家岗文化和大溪文化在年代上有重叠阶段。

It has become a standard method for^(14)C dating research to use Bayesian statistical analysis to model and analyze dating data in OxCal.The basis of Bayesian statistical analysis is the relative chronology of archaeological remains established by stratigraphy and typology.Only the^(14)C data with reliable relative chronology can be modeled and analyzed in OxCal.The chronology models have three types:continuous type,fracture type and overlapping type.On the basis of the data published in the excavation report of“Anxiang TangJiagang”,we divided the Tangjiagang site into two archaeological cultures and six stages through stratigraphy and typos research.We conducted modeling and analysis on 26 radiocarbon dates with relative chronological relationships,verifying the cultural stages and chronological models with consistency functions,and calculating the absolute ages of the archaeological cultures and their periods.Both the pottery typology research and the statistical analysis of Bayesian chronology prove that there are overlapping stages in the chronology of Tangjiagang culture and Daxi culture.