2010—2019年兰州市城关区手足口病发病与气象因素的关系分析

Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Chengguan district of Lanzhou city from 2010 to 2019

目的分析2010—2019年甘肃省兰州市城关区气象因素与手足口病发病的关系,为制定手足口病防控措施提供科学依据。方法收集2010年1月—2019年12月城关区每日手足口病发病数和同期气象数据,使用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析手足口病发病与气象因素的关系。结果2010—2019年城关区共报告手足口病12236例;与中位数相比,高温(P_(75))、低日照时数(P_(25))对手足口病发病具有明显的危险效应,累积效应分别在滞后9 d和8 d最大,累积相对危险度(RR)分别为1.34(95%CI:1.10~1.65)和1.15(95%CI:1.02~1.29);低相对湿度(P_(25))对手足口病发病具有保护效应,累积效应随滞后天数的延长逐渐增大,在滞后第10 d时累积效应最大,累积RR为0.86(95%CI:0.78~0.95)。结论高温、低日照时数可增加手足口病的发病风险,干燥环境可抑制手足口病的传播。

Objective To analyze the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors,so as to provide a scientific basis for enacting prevention and control measures.Methods The incidence data of HFMD and meteorological data during January 2010 to December 2019 were collected from Chengguan District of Lanzhou City.The distributed lag nonlinear(DLNM)model was used to fit the correlation between weather factors and hand-footmouth disease.Results A total of 12236 cases of hand,foot and mouth disease were reported.Compared with the median value,high temperature(P_(75))and low daily sunshine hours(P_(25))had a significant risk effect on the incidence of hand-footmouth disease.The cumulative relative risks were the largest on the 9th and 8th days of lag(RR=1.34,95%CI:1.10-1.65)and(RR=1.15,95%CI:1.02-1.29)respectively.The low relative humidity(P_(25))showed a protective effect on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and the cumulative effect increased with the extension of lag days,the cumulative relative risk(RR)was the smallest on the 10th day of lag(RR=0.86,95%CI:0.78-0.95).Conclusions The high temperature and the low sunshine hours may increase the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease,and the low relative humidity could inhibit the spread of the disease.