价值链分工的国内政治逻辑:以马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾汽车产业为例

The Domestic Political Logic of the Distribution of Value Chains:The Cases of the Automotive Industries in Malaysia,Thailand and the Philippines

能否深度参与全球与区域价值链,是全球化时代东亚国家实现经济持续发展的关键之一。价值链上一国所占据的位置受众多国际因素影响,却也与国内政策选择紧密相关。各国的政策选择在是否具备出口绩效要求和是否培育本土生产能力上差异巨大,很大程度上影响了其在价值链上的位置。文章试图解析这种政策差异背后的政治动因,从统治者的激励与约束出发,建立了一个将选择人理论拓展到产业层面政策制定的框架,进而选取马来西亚、泰国和菲律宾三国的汽车产业,设计了一个“最相似”的比较案例分析。结果显示,统治者面临的政治生存激励,决定其政策目标是将一个产业作为“寻租工具”还是“创收工具”;实现特定政策目标所需的成本则决定了具体的政策选择,即是否将出口绩效要求和(或)本土生产能力作为提供政策支持的条件。文章一定程度上弥补了有关价值链分工的研究中对国内政治讨论的不足,也显示出投资风险评估与产业政策辩论中考虑政治条件的重要性。

One of the key requirements for countries in East Asia to realize sustained development in the era of globalisation is the capacity to participate deeply in global and regional value chains.The position that any country occupies on the value chain is impacted by many different international factors,and is also closely related to domestic policy choice.Policy choices available to states vary widely depending on whether they impose export requirements and promote indigenous productive capacities.Largely,these factors determine a state’s place on the value chain.This article attempts to explain the political factors behind these policy differences.Considering the incentives and constraints faced by rulers,this paper establishes a framework for extending selectorate theory to industrylevel policy making.It conducts a“most similar”comparative case analysis selecting the automobile industries of Malaysia,Thailand,and the Philippines.The study finds that incentives for political survival determine whether policy goals are oriented towards“rent-seeking”or“incomegeneration”.The costs associated with achievement of a specific policy goal determines policy choice;that is,whether to provide policy support with respect to meeting export requirements and(or)developing indigenous productive capacity.This paper helps to fill in gaps in the research on value chains by considering the domestic political factors not normally taken into consideration.This illustrates the importance of considering political factors when assessing investment risk and engaging in industrial policy debates.