非对称软制衡:理论构建及对中国崛起的影响

Asymmetric Soft Balancing: A Theoretical Construct and its Implications for China’s Rise

中国崛起是21世纪影响国际关系变化的决定性因素,国内外学界对此进行了丰富且卓有成效的理论探讨。然而,现有研究并不能完全解释中国崛起过程中面临的一些问题:如为何原本选择与中国进行合作的国家(政府),会因其国内非国家行为体对中国实力和行为的认知变化,转而对中国表现出制衡倾向并采取抵制行动。为何非国家行为体带有民粹主义特色的民族主义认知能够致使两国双边关系急剧恶化。为此,文章改变了传统的以国家权力政治为核心的单一互动制衡,以非国家行为体制衡的主观能动性为自变量、以所在国政府跟随响应度为中介变量,构建由非国家行为体发起、通过国家行为体和非国家行为体复合互动,因观念(认知)差异而导致的非对称软制衡理论,并选取五个典型案例加以验证。

China’s rise will be a decisive factor in changing the state of international relations in the 21 st Century.Scholars in China and abroad have engaged in rich and fruitful theoretical consideration of this question.While so,existing research cannot fully explain a number of issues that will emerge as China makes its rise:For example,why states(governments)which choose to cooperate with China may adopt balancing strategies or seek to prevent its rise in the event of changes in the perceptions of non-state actors towards China as a rising power;or why non-state actors under the influence of nationalistic populism might cause bi-lateral relations between two states to deteriorate.To answer these questions,this article goes beyond traditional understandings of balancing that are based on dynamics focused on the politics of state power.Instead,it considers the subjective initiatives of nonstate actors as a key independent variable influencing state behavior,and state responsiveness to these pressures as a mediator.It uses these variables to construct a theory of asymmetric soft balancing that is driven by the interactions between non-state and state actors over values(perceptions).The article then selects five cases to illustrate this theory.