印度洋海权竞争与印度的战略反应

Maritime Competition in the Indian Ocean and India’s Strategic Response

冷战结束以来,印度洋的战略重要性逐步提升,美国一直在印度洋维持着强大的军事力量,中国、日本和澳大利亚也在不同程度上介入印度洋事务。印度海洋战略的目标是主导印度洋,却对其他国家介入印度洋采取了不同的战略反应。印度对美国由防范逐渐演变为防范与合作兼有的平衡自主型战略反应,对中国和日本分别采取了防范主导型与合作主导型战略反应,对澳大利亚则长期维持着合作缓进型战略反应。威胁认知与收益预期对印度的战略反应提供了整体性解释。对美国威胁认知的降低是印度对美国降低防范并与之开展合作的主要因素;中国军事能力的提升以及印度由来已久的关于中国"威胁"意图的判断,很大程度上影响了印度对中国的战略反应;印度对日澳两国的威胁认知较低,但对日本较高的收益预期促使印日之间的海洋合作更为深入。

The objective of India’s maritime strategy is to achieve dominance in the Indian Ocean,and India has adopted different strategic responses to the involvement of other states.India’s efforts to resist American involvement in the Indian Ocean gradually evolved into a balanced and autonomous strategic response characterized by a mixture of resistance and cooperation.With respect to China and Japan,India has adopted strategic responses characterized by resisting a dominant Chinese role and cooperating with Japan to build joint dominance in the region.Meanwhile,for Australia,India has maintained a strategy of guarded cooperation for a long time.India’s strategic responses can be explained comprehensively by considering its threat perceptions and expected payoffs.