日本在南海问题上的对华政策新调整

Japan’s New Policy Adjustment Towards China on the South China Sea Issue

一国在面对由崛起国而引发的权力体系结构变化时,囿于自身政治、经济、军事力量的局限性,为抵消潜在的风险和可能的威胁,易对崛起国或潜在霸权国实施"对冲"战略。根据一国对威胁认知及相对能力的强弱,其实施的对冲战略强度也不尽相同。本文在综合运用对冲战略分析框架并引入影响"对冲"强度变化的因素后认为,相较之前,2015年后日本在南海问题上对华实施了牵制和制衡成分较为凸显的"强对冲"战略。这种转变是在日本南海威胁认知度提高,"对冲"中国相对能力增强及与中国信任程度持续走低的情况下,做出的对本国利益较为有利的战略调整。

Facing the power system shift caused by a rising power,a country with limited political and military strength is likely to implement the strategy of"hedging"against rising powers or"potential hegemons"to offset the potential risks and threats.According to a country’s threat perception and relative strength,the intensity of its"hedging strategy"is also different.After comprehensively applying the"hedging strategy"analysis framework and introducing factors affecting"hedging"intensity,this article holds that Japan has implemented the"strong hedging strategy"towards China with evident containment and balances on the South China Sea issue since 2015.Meanwhile,Japan seems to be making a strategic adjustment to its own advantage under the condition of its rising awareness of threat perception,the increasing relative strength and the continuous decline of trust with China.