基于SD模型的长白山安图县矿泉水资源承载力研究

Mineral water resources carrying capacity of Antu County in Changbai Mountain based on SD model

为矿泉水资源开发提出合理建议,通过构建矿泉水资源承载力系统动力学模型,并使用层次分析法确定主要变量的权重,模拟研究了5种方案下长白山安图县2015—2030年矿泉水资源承载力的动态变化情况.结果表明:历史数据与大部分主要变量模拟结果的误差均在±5%之内.现状型方案基本能够维持社会经济的可持续发展;发展型方案研究区GDP可达到181.42亿元,但加剧了环境污染问题,水资源供需比降低至0.93;节约型方案放缓了经济增长速度,使水资源供需问题得到缓解,供需比增长至1.25;环境型方案使污染物排放量降低,生态环境污染得到改善,但水资源供需比仍呈下降趋势;协调型方案综合承载力发展最为理想,综合承载力指数达到0.0730,为研究区未来发展的最佳方案.

In order to put forward reasonable suggestions for the development of mineral water resources.This study constructed a system dynamics model of mineral water resources carrying capacity,used the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight value of main variables,and simulated the dynamic variation of carrying capacity from 2015 to 2030 under five schemes.The results show that the errors between historical data and simulation results of most major variables are within±5%;under the current scheme,study area can basically maintain sustainable development of social economy;under the development scheme,GDP will reach to 20.891 billion yuan,but the environmental pollution problem is exacerbated,water supply-demand ratio will decrease to 0.93;saving scheme slows down the economic growth rate and alleviates the problem of water supply and demand,supply-demand ratio will increase to 1.25;environment scheme reduced pollutant emissions and improved environmental pollution,but the ratio of water supply and demand is still on a downward trend;under the comprehensive scheme,carrying capacity index development is the most ideal,which will reach to 0.0730,this pattern is the optimal solution for the future development of study area.