我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性冲击效应——基于总量与结构双重视角

Non-Linear Impact Effects of China’s Tax Policy on Economic Growth——From Aggregate and Structure Perspectives

本文构建了非线性自回归分布滞后 (NARDL) 模型与带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归 (SV-TVP-FAVAR) 模型,探究了我国宏观税负对经济增长的长期非对称效应,并从总量与结构双重视角考察了税收政策对经济增长的短期动态影响效应。研究发现:我国宏观税负与经济增长之间存在着显著的长期均衡关系与非对称效应,税收的负向波动对经济增长的正向拉动效应弱于其正向波动所带来的抑制效应;从总量视角来看,各时期税收的增加均对经济增长产生了显著的抑制效应;从结构视角来看,商品税的增加在经济危机时期与经济复苏时期对经济增长具有抑制效应,而在经济平稳时期具有促进效应,各时期增加所得税能够显著促进经济增长,但增加财产税对经济增长具有抑制效应。总量驱动与结构优化的双轮调控税收政策更有利于推进我国经济高质量增长。

This paper constructs a nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model (NARDL) and a time-varying parameter factor expansion vector autoregressive model with random volatility (SV-TVP-FAVAR),explores the long-term asymmetric effect of China’s macro tax burden on economic growth,and examines the short-term dynamic effect of tax policy on economic growth from aggregate and structure perspectives.The study found that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship and asymmetric effect between macro tax burden and economic growth in China,and the positive pulling effect of the negative tax fluctuation on economic growth is weaker than the restraining effect brought by its positive fluctuation;from the perspective of total amount,the increase of tax in each period has a significant negative inhibitory effect on economic growth;from the perspective of structure,the increase of commodity tax has an inhibitory effect on economic growth in the period of economic crisis and economic recovery,and has a promoting effect in the period of economic stability.Increasing income tax in each period can significantly promote economic growth,but increasing property tax has a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth.The double round regulation tax policy of total amount driving and structural optimization is more conducive to promoting high-quality economic growth in China.