渐进式延迟退休年龄:“小步前行”抑或“大步迈进”?——基于养老保险基金可持续性与财政责任的视角

Progressive Delaying Retirement Age:Taking a “Small Step Forward” or a “Step Forward”?——Based on the Perspective of Fund Sustainability and Fiscal Responsibility of Pension Insurance

文章运用精算模型分析不同延迟退休年龄方案对城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性和财政责任的影响,研究发现:(1)当未延迟退休年龄,基金将在2036年开始出现累计赤字,2070年累计赤字为713.21万亿元,财政于2036年起承担补贴责任,2020-2070年财政责任占财政总支出比重的均值为12.32%;(2)如果执行"女先男后"延退方式,当每年延迟2、3、4和6个月,均值分别降至9.2%、9.78%、7.88%和6.29%,为尽可能减轻财政压力,建议每年延迟6个月;(3)如果执行"男女一起"延退方式,当每年延迟2、3、4和6个月,均值分别降至7.91%、7.06%、6.37%和5.97%,为尽可能减轻财政压力,仍建议每年延迟6个月。可见,从降低财政责任视角,无论执行何种延退方式,每年延迟6个月是较为理想的选择。

This paper uses actuarial models to analyze the impact of different schemes for delaying retirement age on fiscal responsibility of pension insurance.The research shows that(1)when the retirement age is not delayed,the fund will start running cumulative deficits in 2036,which will be 713.21 trillion Yuan in 2070.The finance will pay for pension insurance subsidy from 2036,and the average proportion of fiscal responsibility in total expenditure from 2020 to 2070 will be 12.32%.(2)If delaying the retirement age of women before men,the average proportion will drop to 9.2%,9.78%,7.88%and 6.29%when it is postponed for 2,3,4 and 6 months annually.In order to reduce fiscal pressure,postponing for 6 months annually is suggested.(3)If delaying the retirement age of men and women together,the average proportion will drop to 7.91%,7.06%,6.37%and 5.97%when annual delay is 2,3,4 and 6 months.In order to minimize fiscal pressure,postponing for 6 months annually is still proposed.Overall,from the perspective of reducing fiscal responsibility,delaying six months per year is the ideal option,regardless of the implementation of any extension.