“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家政府债务的影响

Impact of the “Belt and Road” Initiative on the Government Debt of Countries Along the Routes

当前共建"一带一路"进入高质量发展阶段,可持续性问题成为其内在核心。在此背景下,科学有效探讨"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家政府债务影响对于推进"一带一路"可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以2006-2018年世界范围内150个国家(地区)的数据为样本,以合成控制法为工具,探究了"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家的政府债务影响。结果表明:"一带一路"倡议显著降低了沿线国家的政府债务;异质性分析表明,"一带一路"倡议对中低收入与低收入国家政府债务的削减作用更大,且政府债务削减作用在21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线国家强于丝绸之路经济带沿线国家;具体国别分析结果同样支持了"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家政府债务负担的减轻效应;进一步从贸易和投资层面探索"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家政府债务削减效应的重要影响渠道发现,"一带一路"倡议通过促进沿线国家出口贸易和吸收外资的渠道有效降低了政府债务。本文研究结论对于继续推进"一带一路"高质量发展具有重要指导意义。

Nowadays,with the joint construction of the"Belt and Road"entering a stage of high-quality development,sustainability becomes its core issue.Under this background,scientific and effective exploration of the impact of the"Belt and Road"initiative on the government debt of countries along the route is of great significance to the sustainable development of the"Belt and Road".Taking the sample data of 150 countries and regions in 2006-2018,this paper studies the impact of the"Belt and Road"initiative on the government debt of countries along the routes by using Synthetic Control Methods.The results show that the"Belt and Road"initiative has significantly reduced the government debt of the countries along the route;heterogeneity analysis shows the implementation of the"Belt and Road"initiative has a more obvious effect on government debt reduction in middle-low and low income countries comparing with high and middle-high income countries.Also,the effect of debt reduction in countries along the Maritime Silk Road is stronger than countries along the land Silk Road;Country-specific analysis verifies debt reduction of the"Belt and Road"initiative;Further analysis confirms that trade and FDI play important roles in reducing debt under"Belt and Road"initiative.The conclusions of this study are of significance for continuing to promote the high-quality development of the"Belt and Road"initiative.