经济不确定性与最优财政货币政策选择

Economic Uncertainty and the Choice of Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy

经济不确定性下,政府如何选择最优的财政货币政策来应对?本文基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了多种财政货币政策组合下技术不确定性的宏观效应。研究发现:第一,无论实行何种货币政策目标和财政政策,价格型货币政策比数量型货币政策更有效,更适合应对经济不确定性冲击可能引起的经济波动。第二,从经济不确定性冲击的效应和持续时间上看,价格型货币政策和遵循支出规则的财政政策组合最优。第三,从社会福利损失角度来看,在应对经济不确定性方面,通货膨胀目标制下的价格型货币政策和遵循支出规则的财政政策是最优组合。

Under the economic uncertainty,how does the government choose the optimal fiscal and monetary policy?Based on the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,this paper analyzes the macro effects of technical uncertainty under various fiscal and monetary policy combinations.The research finds that:First,no matter what target rules and fiscal rules are implemented,the price monetary policy is more effective than the quantitative monetary policy,and is more suitable to deal with the economic fluctuations that may be caused by the impact of economic uncertainty.Second,in terms of the effect and duration of the impact of economic uncertainty,the combination of price monetary policy and fiscal policy following the spending rules is the best.Third,from the perspective of social welfare loss,monetary policies based on price and inflation targeting and fiscal policies based on spending rules are the optimal combination in dealing with economic uncertainty.