我国财政政策的调控效果分析——基于政策不确定性视角

The Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy Shock——Under the Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty

在政府部门运用财政政策进行宏观调控的同时,政策及其不确定性对宏观经济的影响越来越受到社会各界的关注。已有研究在对政策不确定性的影响进行实证分析时普遍都忽视了其背后的政策内涵,本文采用符号约束SVAR模型对不同政策不确定性背景下的财政政策冲击进行研究。研究发现:不同政策不确定性背景下的财政政策冲击对宏观经济变量的影响具有非对称性,政策不确定性上升情形下的财政政策会导致我国的经济波动加剧。本文的研究填补了已有的实证分析文献在将财政政策冲击与政策不确定性相结合来进行财政政策效果评价方面的研究空白,为政策不确定性对宏观经济的影响等方面的研究提供了更具政策内涵的新的解释。

While the government uses the fiscal policies to carry out macro regulation,the influence of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)has drawn increasing public attention.However,the existing research generally ignores the policy implications behind the EPU.This paper analyzes the impulse response of fiscal policy shocks under different policy uncertainties by employing structural vector auto regression model and sign-restriction method,and finds that the impact of fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic variables is asymmetric and policies in the context of rising policy uncertainties will lead to increased economic volatility in China.The research in this paper fills the gap in the existing empirical analysis literature in the combination of fiscal policy shocks and policy uncertainty to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy,and provides a new interpretation for the impact of policy uncertainty on macroeconomics.