减税、财政透明度与地方财政可持续性——基于中部六省地市级政府债务水平的实证研究

On Tax Reduction, Fiscal Transparency and Local Fiscal Sustainability:An Empirical Study on the Level of Municipal Government Debt in the Six Provinces of Central China

新常态下经济由高速发展阶段转向高质量发展阶段,为应对宏观经济下行压力,中央出台了一系列减税降费政策,对地方政府财政可持续性产生了一定的影响.文章选用2012年至2020年中部六省79个地级市面板数据,采用静态与动态固定面板模型考察了减税降费政策的实施对于地方政府财政可持续性的影响.研究发现:(1)减税政策会对地方政府财政可持续性产生显著的负向影响;(2)鉴于地方政府债务监督管理制度尚未完善,随着地方政府财政透明度的提升,地方政府在应对财政资金压力时,倾向于违规举债,导致隐性债务不断攀升,对地方政府财政可持续性产生负向影响;(3)地方政府财政可持续性具有一定程度的惯性,即地方政府财政可持续性的历史状况将对当前地方政府财政可持续性产生显著影响.

Under the new normal situation,the economy has changed from high-speed development stage to high-quality development stage.In order to cope with the downward pressure of macro-economy,the central government has issued a series policies of reduction of tax and fee,which have a certain impact on the financial sustainability of local governments.Based on the panel data of 79 prefecture level cities in six provinces of central China from 2012 to 2019,this paper investigates the impact of reduction of tax and on the fiscal sustainability of local governments with static and dynamic fixed panel models.The results show that:(1)Reduction of tax policy has a significant negative impact on the fiscal sustainability of local governments;(2)In view of the imperfection of local government debt supervision and management system,with the improvement of local government financial transparency,local governments tend to raise debts in violation of regulations when dealing with financial capital pressure,which leads to the rising of implicit debt and has a negative impact on local government financial sustainability;(3)The fiscal sustainability of local government has a certain degree of inertia,that is,the historical situation of fiscal sustainability of local government will have a significant impact on the fiscal sustainability of local government in the current period.