基于世界投入产出表的中美GVC嵌入位置测度研究

Measurement of GVC Embedded Position of Sino-US based on the World Input and Output Table

中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情的双重冲击,使得国家间的贸易往来减少,世界经济深度衰退,全球价值链体系出现断裂、萎缩乃至价值贬值的现象。在当前复杂的国际经济形势下,本文构建三国投入产出模型,计算投入产出相关系数,按价值来源对中国向美国的出口总额进行分解,并通过测度GVC参与指数和位置指数,分析比较两国16个产业部门在GVC中的参与程度和嵌入位置。结果显示:2010~2015年中国向美国的贸易出口总额在逐渐增加,中美两国贸易往来比较频繁;且两国的部分产业在GVC分工体系中的参与程度和嵌入位置存在着一定的差异。中国的采矿和采石、人类健康和社会工作在GVC中处于上游环节,而美国在GVC中嵌入位置较高的产业有建筑业、电力/煤气/供水/排污等基础设施产业。但中美两国的制造业在GVC中的参与程度都较低,且均处于GVC的下游环节。

The double impact of the China-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced trade between countries,led to a deep recession in the world economy,and caused the global value chain system to break down,shrink and even depreciate.Under the current complex international economic situation,this paper constructs the input-output model of the three countries,calculates the input-output correlation coefficient,and decomposes the total exports value from China to the US according to the source of value.By measuring the GVC participation index and position index,this paper analyses and compares the participation degree and embedded position of the 16 industrial sectors of the two countries in GVC.The results show that from 2010 to 2015,the total trade volume of China's exports to the US increased gradually,and the trade between China and the US was relatively frequent.And there are some differences between the two countries in the degree of participation and embedding of some industries in the GVC division of labor system.Mining and quarrying,human health and social work in China are upstream of GVC,while the US has high embedded industries in GVC such as construction,electricity,gas,water supply,sewage and other infrastructure industries.However,the manufacturing industry of both China and the US has a low participation degree in GVC,and both in the downstream of GVC.