产业政策的定量研究综述:基于CNKI与Web of Science的CiteSpace文献计量分析

Quantitative Research on Industrial Policy:A Literature Review

本文采用基于CNKI与Web of Science的CiteSpace文献计量分析方法对2000~2020年的506篇产业政策相关文献进行定量研究,探究产业政策定量研究的发展脉络,提出了产业政策定量研究方法的逻辑框架,并深入研究产业政策的影响效应。现有研究发现:(1)产业政策量化识别方式包括为虚拟变量和代理变量,虚拟变量可以细分为产业针对型、地理区位型和时间节点型,代理变量则包括补贴型和指标型。(2)产业政策效应捕捉的定量方法涉及数学建模抽象法、评价体系构建法和探索性数据量化法。其中,数学建模抽象法主要使用可计算一般均衡模型;评价体系构建法有层次分析法,模糊综合评价法和数据包络分析法;探索性数据量化法主要有普通最小二乘法、二值回归法和双重差分法。(3)产业政策效应主要包括企业效应、产业效应和环境效应。具体地,产业政策对企业生产效率、融资水平、科技创新、投资效率、产业集聚、脱实向虚和产能过剩等既可能产生积极的优化作用,也可能产生消极的恶化作用,同时还带来了经济效益和环境效益冲突的问题。

This paper uses the CiteSpace bibliometric method to carry out quantitative research on 506 industrial policy-related documents from 2000 to 2020,explores the development context of quantitative research on industrial policy,and proposes the logical framework of quantitative research methods for industrial policy with in-depth research on the effects of industrial policy.We conclude that:(1)The strategies to identify industrial policy quantitatively could be divided into two categories,dummy variables,and proxy variables.Dummy variables can be divided into industry-specific,geographical location and time node;proxy variables include subsidy type and index type.(2)There are three types of the quantitative methods to capture industrial policy effects,which are mathematical modeling,indicator system and regression analysis.The mathematical modeling method mainly uses computable general equilibrium model,the indicator system includes AHP,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and DEA,regression analysis mainly includes OLS,binary regression and DID.(3)Industrial policy effects include enterprise effects,industrial effects and environmental effects.Specifically,industrial policies have both positive and negative effects on enterprise production efficiency,financing level,scientific and technological innovation,investment efficiency,industrial agglomeration,transferring resources from manufacturing to services industry,and overcapacity,also,there is a conflict between economic benefits and environmental benefits.