企业出口波动的动因:人口年龄结构视角的分析

Impact on Enterprises'Export Fluctuation:Analysis of Population Age Structure

基于劳动力工资的讨价还价模型和新新贸易理论,本文从理论和实证两个角度,对中国各省份的人口年龄结构对企业贸易波动的影响进行研究。研究发现:(1)企业所在省份较小的适龄人口占比会增大企业的出口波动;(2)较小的适龄人口占比对非国有、外资以及规模大、年限较长企业的出口有更大、更显著的冲击;(3)较小的适龄人口占比通过降低企业全要素生产率和提高企业的劳动报酬占比影响企业的出口;(4)本文的实证结果在省级层面数据回归中仍保持了结果的一致稳健性。

Based on the bargaining model of labor wages and the new-new trade theory,this paper analyzes the influence of the age structure of population on the enterprises'trade fluctuation in China from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The results show that:(1)the smaller of youth age population ratio in the province where the enterprise is located will increase the export fluctuation of the enterprise;(2)the smaller of youth age population ratio will have a greater and more significant impact on the export fluctuation of non-state-owned,foreign-invested,large-scale and long-age enterprises;(3)the smaller of youth age population ratio will affect the export fluctuation of the enterprise by reducing the total factor productivity and increasing the labor remuneration of the enterprise;(4)the empirical results of this paper are consistent and robust in removing extreme value and provincial level data regression.