全球价值链双边嵌入与国家间的就业联动

Bilateral Embedment in Global Value Chains and Employment Linkage between Countries

基于WIOD数据库的国家间投入产出表,本文从经济周期的视角研究了全球价值链双边嵌入对两国就业联动的影响。研究结果发现,两国的全球价值链双边嵌入程度越高,两国的就业增长联动程度会越高,该结论也通过了滞后期检验和金融危机期间的短样本检验,并且在发达国家与发展中国家的子样本、欧盟成员国的子样本中更显著。为了分析全球价值链上下游位置对结论的影响,我们以中美两国行业层面的数据进一步检验,但中美两国双边价值链嵌入对两国就业增长联动的影响因行业要素密集度的差异而显著不同。

From the perspective of business cycle,this article studies the impact of bilateral embedding of global value chains on employment growth linkage in both countries,based on the inter-country input-output table of the WIOD.From a macroeconomic cycle perspective and a global value chain upstream and downstream perspective,we study the impact of inter-country bilateral embedding of global value chains on the overall employment growth of the two countries.We found that the higher the degree of bilateral embedding in the global value chains of the two countries,the higher the degree of linkage between the employment growth of the two countries.The conclusion also passed the lag test and the short sample test during the financial crisis.Sub-samples from developed country and developing country and EU member states are more significant.From the perspective of GVCs,the impact of bilateral embedding between Chinese and American industries on the employment growth linkage betweem these two countries varies,depending on the factor intensity of the industries.