中国电力消费的动态时空演化——基于社会网络分析法

Dynamic Spatio-temporal Evolution of Electricity Consumption in China:Based on Social Network Analysis

电力是国民经济发展重要的生产资料及人民生活中必不可少的生活资料,分析电力消费的空间关联性与时空演化具有重要意义。本文基于中国"十一五"到"十三五"期间的省际电力消费,利用社会网络分析方法研究了中国电力消费特征的时空演化。研究发现:(1)中国电力消费的空间分布较为严密,所有省份均不可或缺;随着时空变化,北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏、广东等省份在网络中居于相对比较主要的地位。(2)"十一五"至"十三五"各省份间的网络密度和凝聚力指数呈现倒"U"型分布,即随着时间的推移,先上升,后下降,并在2012年达到最大值。(3)"十一五"至"十三五"全国31个省区市的点度中心度均值、接近中心度均值总体呈现出倒"U"型,中介中心度均值呈现"U"型。三个五年规划首年点度中心度最大的省份为上海、安徽、辽宁,它们在全国电力消费空间关联网络中的地位较高。(4)模型的分析结果显示"十一五"至"十三五"期间,"双向溢出"板块和"净受益"板块所包含的省份属于京津冀、长三角、珠三角区域,也有甘肃等省份从"经纪人"板块向"净溢出"板块转移。本研究厘清了中国电力消费中不同地区在空间关联网络中的角色和作用,对新常态下构建中国电力跨区域协同提升机制具有重要的理论意义和应用价值,同时,为新的"五年规划"中能源基础设施规划的编制和项目的实施提供了参考和指导。

Electric is important for the development of national economy and people's life.It is great significant to analyze the spatial correlation and evolution of electricity consumption.Based on the inter-provincial electricity consumption from the 11th five-year plan to the 13th five-year plan period,we study the spatio-temporal evolution of electricity consumption in China by using social network analysis(SNA).The findings are as follows:1)The spatial distribution of electricity consumption in China is relatively tight,and all provinces are indispensable;With the change of time and space,Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Guangdong provinces play a relatively important role in the network.2)The network density and cohesion index among the provinces showed an inverted U shape,that is,it rose first,then fell,and reached its maximum value in 2012.3)Meanwhile,the mean value of Degree Centrality and Closeness Centrality of 31 provinces in China generally present an inverted U shape,while the mean value of Betweenness Centrality presents a U shape.The provinces with the largest Degree Centrality in the first year of the three five-year plans are Shanghai,Anhui and Liaoning,which have a higher status in the national power consumption spatial correlation network.4)The analysis results of the block model show that during the period from the 11th five-year plan to the 13th five-year plan,the“two-way overflow”block and the“net benefit”block belong to the Beijing and Tianjin Wing,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,while some provinces like Gansu are shifting from the“broker”block to the“net overflow”block.This study clarifies the roles of different regions in the spatial correlation network in China's electricity consumption,which has important theoretical significance and application value to construct the cross-regional collaborative promotion mechanism of China's power under the new normal,and provides reference and guidance for the planning and implementation of the energy infrastructure in the new“five-year plan”.