人力资本结构高级化对服务业结构升级的影响——基于政府和市场的双轮驱动

The Impact of the Upgrading of Human Capital Structure on the Upgrading of Service Industry Structure——A Two Wheel Drive Based on Government and Market

基于2008~2018年中国省域面板数据,引入带有伴随变量的有限混合模型,在对服务业结构升级模式进行客观分类的基础上,讨论了人力资本结构高级化影响服务业结构升级的异质性特征。主要结论为:(1)中国人力资本结构高级化明显推动了服务业结构升级,而这种推动作用主要是通过收入需求效应、劳动效率提升效应以及技术创新效应等机制实现的。(2)人力资本结构高级化对服务业结构升级的异质性影响有两种客观模式,模式一中人力资本结构高级化对服务业结构升级的作用不显著,而模式二中人力资本结构高级化对服务业结构升级产生显著正向促进作用。(3)考虑政府和市场的作用后可以发现,政府规模的扩大和市场化水平的提高均不会显著影响人力资本结构高级化对服务业结构升级的促进作用。(4)考察期内有8个省份由模式一转为模式二,而政府和市场的协同作用是模式转换的决定性因素。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2008 to 2018,the finite mixture model with accompanying variables is introduced.Based on the objective classification of the structural upgrading mode of service industry,the heterogeneity characteristics of the impact of the upgrading of human capital structure on the structural upgrading of service industry are discussed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the upgrading of China’s human capital structure has significantly promoted the upgrading of service industry structure,which is mainly realized through mechanisms such as income demand effect,labor efficiency improvement effect and technological innovation effect.(2)There are two objective models for the heterogeneous impact of the upgrading of service industry structure by the upgrading of human capital structure.In model 1,the upgrading of human capital structure has no significant effect on the upgrading of service industry structure,while in model 2,the upgrading of human capital structure has a significant positive effect on the upgrading of service industry structure.(3)Considering the role of government and market,we can find that the excessive expansion of government scale will significantly inhibit the promotion of the upgrading of human capital structure on the upgrading of service industry structure,but the improvement of marketoriented level has no significant effect.(4)During the investigation period,8 provinces have undergone mode transformation,and the synergy between the government and the market is the decisive factor of mode transformation.