中国连片贫困地区对口支援政策的减贫效应评估及优化取向——基于省际对口支援西藏的准自然实验

Evaluation on Poverty Reduction Effect and Optimization Orientation of Partner Assistance Policy of Contiguous Poverty-stricken Areas in China——Based on a Quasi-natural Experiment of Inter-provincial Partner Assistance in Tibet

对口支援作为中国一项重要的区域政策创新,在助力脱贫攻坚中发挥了重要作用。在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果和全面推进乡村振兴的新背景下,有必要对对口支援政策的减贫效应进行评估,并提出优化取向,以接续充分发挥其助力作用。本文在分析对口支援政策减贫作用机制的基础上,将省际对口支援西藏作为一次准自然实验,基于中国西部10个省份1986~2014年的平衡面板数据,采用合成控制法(SCM)实证分析了对口支援政策的减贫效应。研究表明:对口支援政策对西藏具有显著的减贫效应,但这一效应大小并不稳定,表现为在政策实施初期的减贫效应十分明显,而随后一段时期的减贫效应趋于下降,之后又不断上升的趋势,这一结论经安慰剂检验和双重差分(DID)检验依然成立。双重差分检验结果进一步表明,政府财政支出规模和城镇化水平的提升有力地减少了西藏贫困,地区经济发展水平、对外开放水平和教育水平的提高也显著减少了西藏贫困,但作用效应相对有限,而第一产业规模的低质量增长并不利于贫困人口稳定脱贫。

Partner assistance which is an important policy regional policy innovation in China has played an important role in helping to poverty alleviation.Under the new background of consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and comprehensively promoting rural revitalization,it is necessary to evaluate the poverty reduction effect and propose optimization orientation of partner assistance policy in order to continue to give full play to its role.Based on the analysis of the poverty reduction mechanism of partner assistance policy,the paper takes cross-provincial partner assistance in Tibet as a quasi-natural experiment,based on balance panel data of 10 provinces of western China from 1986 to 2014,uses the synthetic control method(SCM)to identify poverty reduction effect of partner assistance policy.The study shows that partner assistance policy has a significant poverty reduction effect in Tibet,but the effect of partner assistance policy is fluctuating,which is manifested in that the poverty reduction effect is very obvious in the early stages of policy implementation,and it tends to decline in the subsequent period,and then continues to rise.This conclusion is still valid through the placebo test and the double-difference test.The difference-in-differences(DID)test shows that the increase in the scale of government fiscal expenditure and the level of urbanization has effectively reduced poverty in Tibet,and the improvement in the level of regional economic development,opening up and education has also significantly reduced poverty in Tibet,but the effect of the three factors is relatively limited.The low-quality growth of the primary industry is not conducive to increase income and get rid of poverty for the poor.