后疫情时期契约农业对农户收入信心影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Impact of Contract Farming on Household Income Confidence in the Post-epidemic Period

本文以新型冠状病毒肺炎事件为例,研究后疫情时期契约农业是否有助于提升农户收入信心。首先,基于生产函数理论建立数理模型,分析契约农业对农户收入信心的影响。其次,将农户从签订契约的合同商处得到的社会支持分为后疫情时期采取的有效防控措施、提供饲料来源等降低生产困难、疫情及生产相关信息、协助农户更快恢复生产生活四个方面,研究契约农业如何通过社会支持影响农户收入信心。选取229户农户调查问卷数据进行实证分析,估计结果显示,契约农业提升农户收入信心。为避免遗漏变量导致估计结果偏差,实证分析时引入户主及家庭特征等控制变量。最后,文章建议地方政府应该加大契约农业的推广,并加强疫情及生产等信息的宣传,加快本地生产生活恢复等。研究结论为契约农业的进一步推广提供理论解释,并对于后疫情时期提升农户收入信心、确保农户稳定增收具有指导意义。

In this paper,COVID-19 incident was taken as an example and,to research whether contract farming can help restore household income confidence under the Post-epidemic Period.Firstly,the mathematical model is established on the basis of agricultural production risk coefficient,the impact of contract farming confidence in household income is assessed.Secondly,the household’s social support which be divided into the effective prevention and control measures in the post-epidemic period,provide feed sources,information about the epidemic and production,will be involved in to research household income confidence.The questionnaire data of 229 households are selected for empirical study,the estimation results are showed that the household income confidence is improved.To avoid missing variable lead to estimate deviation,the household and family characteristics are introduced.Lastly,the suggestions are given that local government should promote contract farming,increase the production and epidemic information propaganda,and restore the local production and living speedily.It’s provided theoretical explanation for further strengthening the extension of contract farming,and significance is guided for improving household income confidence and guarantee the stability of farmers’income in the post-epidemic period.