中国装备制造业发展:特征事实与增长动力转换实证

The Development of China’s Equipment Manufacturing Industry:Characteristics of the Facts and Empirical Evidence of the Driving Force Transformation

在中国经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段的现实背景下,支撑中国装备制造业保持稳定增长的传统动力受到供需两侧结构性变化的约束而趋于减弱,推动装备制造业增长动力转换对于实现装备制造业高质量发展具有重要意义。文章首先描述了1990~2017年中国装备制造业发展的特征事实,然后通过构建扩展的C-D生产函数模型,运用全面FGLS和迭代FGLS估计模型对中国装备制造业增长动力转换进行实证。研究结果表明:中国装备制造业各细分行业目前正处于或即将进入产业成熟期,亟须培育产业增长新动力。从整体回归结果看,中国装备制造业产出增长主要由劳动力要素驱动,资本要素和研发投入的驱动作用相对较弱。从分段回归结果看,劳动力要素和研发投入对装备制造业产出增长的驱动作用明显提升,而资本要素的驱动作用却明显减弱。中国装备制造业并未遵循"劳动力要素驱动-资本要素驱动-研发投入驱动"的传统增长路径,而是存在着依靠劳动力要素和研发投入"双轮驱动"的可能性。

Under the realistic background of China’s economic development from high-speed growth to high-quality development,the traditional driving forces supporting the steady growth of China’s equipment manufacturing industry are constrained by structural changes on both sides of supply and demand.It is of great significance to promote the transformation of the driving force for the growth of the equipment manufacturing industry to realize the high-quality development of the equipment manufacturing industry.The paper first describes the characteristics and facts of the development of China’s equipment manufacturing industry from 1990 to 2017,and then makes an empirical study of the driving force transformation of China’s equipment manufacturing industry by constructing an extended Cobb-Douglas production function model and using comprehensive FGLS and iterative FGLS estimation model.The research results show that:The segmented industries of China’s equipment manufacturing industry are in or about to enter the stage of industrial maturity,so it is urgent to cultivate new impetus for industrial growth.From the overall regression results,the output growth of China’s equipment manufacturing industry is mainly driven by labor factors,while the driving effect of capital factors and R&D input is relatively weak.From the segmented regression results,the driving effect of labor factor and R&D input on the output growth of equipment manufacturing industry is obviously increased,while the driving effect of capital factor is obviously weakened.China’s equipment manufacturing industry has not followed the traditional growth path of"labor factors-capital factors-R&D input".Instead,there is the possibility of"two-wheel drive",depending on labor factors and R&D investment.