中国中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中的碳排放转移测度

CO2 Emissions Transfer in Central Region Induced by Undertaking Inter-Regional Industry Transfer

随着中国经济结构调整与产业转型升级步伐的加速,经济发达区域相关产业向中部区域链条式、整体式和集群式转移的趋势也日益明显,针对中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中可能引致的碳排放转入问题,本文基于区域间投入产出模型测度与分析了2002~2017年中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中的碳排放转移规模、净流向与特征,并对区域间产业净转入是否必然引致碳排放净转入进行实证探讨。结果表明:(1)2012年前后中部区域承接国内产业转移与由此引致的碳排放转移呈现不同的态势,中部区域产业净流入与由此引致的碳排放净转入在2012年后凸显;(2)中部区域在产业转移与碳排放转移上均体现日益明显的承东启西区位作用,除承接来自经济发达区域产业净转出与碳排放净转出外,向西北和西南区域净转出了大量数额产业与碳排放;(3)分区域而言,中部区域对各区域产业净转出(入)规模和流向与由此引致的碳排放净转出(入)流向规模和流向并非一致,产业净转出并非必然引致碳排放净转出,这一结果产生的主要原因在于各区域间分产业碳排放系数存在较大差异。在此基础上提出了中部区域承接产业转移进程中有效规避碳排放净转入的政策建议。

With the acceleration of China’s economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading,the trend of transferring of industries in the developed regions to the central region is becoming increasingly evident.This paper analyzed the scale of carbon emissions,net flows and characteristics in progress of the undertaking the domestic industry transfer of the central region,and made an empirical discussion of whether the inter-regional net industrial transfer will inevitably lead to the net carbon emissions transfer.Results show that:(1)the transfer of domestic industries and carbon emissions in the central region have shown different trends around 2012,The net inflow of industries and net inflow of carbon emissions in the central region and the resulting have been significantly enhanced since 2012;(2)in addition to the net transfer of industries and carbon emissions from developed regions.a large amount of industry and carbon emissions have been transferred from the central region to the northwest and southwest regions;(3)in terms of sub regions,the scale and direction of net transfer of the industries in the central region are not inconsistent with its the scale and direction of carbon emissions;(4)the differences in the carbon emission coefficient of sub-industries among regions are main reasons for the flow and scale of net industrial transfer non-conformity with the net transfer of carbon emissions,which is also the key to effectively reducing and avoiding the net transfer of carbon emissions during the process of industrial transfer.