基于ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型的煤炭市场需求预测研究

Research on Coal Market Demand Forecast Based on ARIMA and GM(1,1) Models

"富煤贫油少气"的能源禀赋决定了煤炭在中国能源生产和消费中的绝对主导地位,但长期大量使用煤炭导致了严重的环境问题,东部沿海经济发达地区的生态压力尤为突出,"控煤"已经成为各界共识和现实政策。分析煤炭消费现状,预测未来煤炭需求,是统筹煤炭消费减量替代与经济发展、环境保护的基础和起点。本文从行业、区域等角度分析了中国煤炭消费的主要特点,进而采用ARIMA模型、GM(1,1)模型与组合预测模型,对全国及京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区2017~2025年煤炭消费需求总量进行了预测,发现全国2020年煤炭消费总量能够达到预定目标,但仍面临煤炭消费需求不断扩大的压力;京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区的煤炭消费需求总体上都呈现缓慢持续下降趋势,其中珠三角地区煤炭消费总量和减少速度最为理想,京津冀地区次之,长三角地区煤炭消费总量和减少速度都不理想。最后,本文提出了加大节煤减排力度,进一步淘汰落后产能,严控煤炭增量消费,促进煤炭的清洁利用,鼓励煤炭消费终端"煤改气""煤改电"与清洁能源消费,禁煤和能源替代等政策逐步由京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区向其他重点城市和省区推广。

The energy endowment of"coal-rich and poor oil and gas"determines the absolute dominant position of coal in China’s energy production and consumption,but the long-term heavy use of coal has led to serious environmental problems,especially the ecological pressure in the economically developed areas along the eastern coast,and"coal control"has become a consensus and realistic policy from all walks of life.Analyzing the current situation of coal consumption and predicting the future coal demand are the basis and starting point for coordinating coal consumption reduction substitution and economic development and environmental protection.This paper analyzes the main characteristics of Coal consumption in China from the perspective of industry,region and so on,and then uses ARIMA model,GM(1,1)model and combination prediction model to forecast the total coal consumption demand in 2017-2025 for the whole country and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions.It is found that the total coal consumption in 2020 can reach the target,but still face the pressure of expanding coal consumption demand,and the coal consumption demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region in general show a slow and continuous downward trend,of which the total coal consumption and reduction rate in the Pearl River Delta region are the most ideal,The total amount of coal consumption and the rate of reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta region are not ideal.Finally,this paper proposes to increase coal-saving emission reduction efforts,further eliminate backward production capacity,strictly control the incremental consumption of coal,promote the clean use of coal,encourage coal consumption terminals"coal to gas","coal to electricity"and clean energy consumption,policies such as coal ban area and energy substitution will be gradually extended by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions to other key cities and provinces.