经营环境不确定性与企业创新——基于宏观经济和地方政策双重不确定性视角

Uncertainty of business environment and enterprise innovation: a perspective of dual uncertainty in macroeconomy and local policy

经营环境不确定性是"促进"还是"抑制"企业创新仍存在较大争论。将企业面临的经营环境不确定性区分为宏观经济不确定性和地方政策不确定性,基于2000—2018年中国上市公司数据,分析两类不确定性对企业创新的影响。研究发现:宏观经济不确定性正向影响企业创新,增长期权效应在其中起主导作用,作用渠道在于市场前景的不明朗导致企业经营业绩波动和投资收益率下降,促使企业通过技术创新谋求自我提升和发展;地方政策不确定性负向影响企业创新,实物期权效应在其中起主导作用,作用渠道在于地方政策不确定性导致政府补贴减少和信贷优惠力度下降,迫使企业减少创新活动。通过分析异质性企业之间创新决策的差异,再次验证了两类不确定性对创新影响的主导机制。研究结论具有一定的政策启示:宏观经济不确定性对企业来说不仅意味着挑战还包含着机遇,技术创新是企业应对全球贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情等不确定性冲击的关键;应加快建设服务型政府,打造良好的营商环境,以地方政策的"确定性",应对宏观经济环境的"不确定性"。

There is still a significant debate about whether uncertainty in the business environment"promotes"or"inhibits"enterprise innovation.In this paper,the uncertainty faced by enterprises in their business environment is divided into macroeconomic uncertainty and local policy uncertainty.Based on the data of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2018,this paper analyzes the influence of these two types of uncertainty on enterprise innovation.The results show that macroeconomic uncertainty positively affects enterprise innovation,and the growth option effect plays a leading role.The channel of action results from the fluctuation of business performance and the decline in the rate of return on investments caused by the uncertainty of market prospects,forcing enterprises to pursue self-improvement and development through technological innovation.Local policy uncertainty negatively affects enterprise innovation,and the real option effect plays a leading role.The causal channel follows from the reduction of government subsidies and credit incentives triggered by local policy uncertainty,forcing enterprises to reduce innovation activity.By analyzing the differences in innovation decisions among heterogeneous enterprises,we verify the dominant mechanisms for the influence of two kinds of uncertainty on innovation.The conclusions have policy relevance.Macroeconomic uncertainty presents enterprises with challenges and opportunities,and technological innovation is key to coping with global trade friction,the COVID-19 pneumonia pandemic,and other uncertainties.It is critical to accelerate the construction of service-oriented government and create a supportive business environment and to address the"uncertainty"of the macroeconomic environment by ensuring the"certainty"of local policy.