高铁开通提高了中国城市经济增长质量吗?——基于劳动力流动视角的解释

Has the opening of high-speed railway improved the quality of economic growth in Chinese cities? A labor mobility perspective

中国经济正处于高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段的关键时间窗口,提升城市经济增长质量至关重要。将高铁开通作为一项准自然实验,以2003—2019年中国286个地级及以上城市作为研究样本,实证检验高铁开通对中国城市经济增长质量的影响效应和作用机制。理论分析表明,高铁开通主要通过改善劳动力的空间配置效率、降低劳动力流动成本这两个方面影响城市经济增长质量。实证研究发现,高铁开通能够促进中国城市经济增长质量提升,且这种促进作用具有持续性。进一步地,高铁开通带来的持续性影响对中部地区城市经济增长质量表现出不断扩大的正向影响,但对东部地区城市表现出波动影响。从城市特征来看,高铁开通对中小规模城市、非城市群城市经济增长质量具有更显著的促进作用。机制检验证明,高铁开通主要通过劳动力流动对城市经济增长质量产生积极影响,且高技能劳动力流动带来的促进作用要大于低技能劳动力流动带来的作用。

China’s economy is in a critical window as it shifts from the high-speed growth to the high-quality stage of development,and it is crucial to improve the quality of urban economic growth.This paper takes the opening of high-speed rail as a quasi-natural experiment.It uses 286 cities in China at the prefecture level and above from 2003—2019 to empirically test the effect on the quality of urban economic growth in China of the opening of high-speed rail and the channel for that effect.The theoretical analysis shows that the opening of high-speed railways affects the quality of urban economic growth through two primary channels:improving the spatial allocation efficiency of labor and reducing the cost of mobility for labor.The empirical findings are that the opening of high-speed rail can promote the quality of economic growth in Chinese cities,and this promotion effect is sustainable.Further,these rail openings have a continuous effect;there is an expanding positive impact on the quality of economic growth in central cities but a fluctuating impact on eastern cities.In terms of city characteristics,the opening of high-speed rail has a more significant promotion effect on the quality of economic growth of small,medium-sized,and non-urban-cluster cities.The mechanism test proves that the opening of high-speed railways has a positive impact on the quality of urban economic growth mainly through labor mobility,and the boosting effect provided by high-skilled-labor mobility is greater than that introduced by low-skilled-labor mobility.