城市间高铁开通影响了产业集聚态势吗?——以知识密集型服务业为例

Does the opening of high-speed rail between cities affect the trend of industrial agglomeration? The example of knowledge-intensive services

基于2003—2018年我国地级城市的面板数据,运用双重差分及中介效应模型,揭示了城市间高铁开通对区域内知识密集型服务业集聚态势的影响。研究表明:城市间高铁开通显著影响了知识密集型服务业的集聚态势,推动了域内知识密集型服务业的均衡布局。动态效应结果显示,高铁开通与知识密集型服务业集聚的相关性在高铁开通数年后由负转正。异质性检验显示:高铁开通对非省会城市、港口城市及大城市知识密集型服务业集聚态势呈负向作用,具体来看对中原、京津冀、长三角、长江中游城市群知识密集型服务业集聚态势抑制作用明显;城市间高铁开通对低端知识密集型服务业集聚影响以扩散效应为主,对高端知识密集型服务业集聚影响不显著;对中等集聚水平知识密集型服务业的扩散效应最为强烈,对集聚程度较高或较低的知识密集型服务业扩散效应较弱。进一步的机制检验发现,"资本转移效应"与"劳动力流动成本降低效应"是高铁开通抑制知识密集型服务业集聚态势的中介路径,而"知识流动效应"抵消了高铁开通对知识密集型服务业集聚态势的部分抑制作用。

Based on panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper uses difference-in-differences model and mediating effect model to reveal the impact of inter-city high-speed rail on the agglomeration trend in knowledge-intensive services.The results show that the opening of inter-city high-speed railways significantly affects this trend and promotes the balanced distribution of knowledge-intensive services.The dynamic effect results show the correlation between high-speed-rail operation and knowledge-intensive service-industry agglomeration turns from negative to positive several years after the launch of the rail operation.The heterogeneity test shows that the opening of high-speed rail has a negative effect on the agglomeration of knowledge-intensive services in non-provincial,port and large cities,and has a significant inhibiting effect on the agglomeration of knowledge-intensive services in the central plains,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.The inter-city high-speed rail has a diffusion effect on low-end knowledge-intensive service industry agglomeration but has no significant effect on high-end knowledge-intensive service industry agglomeration.The diffusion effect is the strongest for mid-level knowledge-intensive services and weak for high-or low-level knowledge-intensive services.Further mechanism testing shows that the"capital transfer effect"and"labor mobility cost reduction effect"are the mediating paths to restrain the agglomeration of knowledge-intensive services.The"knowledge flow effect"offsets part of high-speed rail’s restraining effect on the agglomeration of knowledge-intensive services.