中欧班列开通能否推动产业结构升级?——来自中国285个地级市的准自然实验研究

Launching the CR Express and industrial upgrading: research based on a quasi-natural experiment of 285 prefecture-level cities in China

产业升级是实现经济高质量发展的关键。以中欧班列开通作为一项准自然实验,利用多期DID模型考察了中欧班列开通对产业升级的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:中欧班列显著推动了开通区域的产业升级,在考虑内生性问题等一系列可能干扰结果的因素后,该结论依旧稳健,并且该促进效应主要通过创新驱动、金融发展及贸易增长等维度来实现。异质性检验结果显示,中欧班列开通对中西部地区的产业升级具有更显著的影响,而且依托中心地区、运输廊道及内陆自贸区的中欧班列具有更强的产业升级效应。拓展性分析表明:基于产业升级视角,统一品牌后的中欧班列发展具有可持续性,同时良好的成本管控和央地关系也有助于中欧班列开通的经济效应发挥,但地方政府恶性博弈阻碍了中欧班列开通对产业升级的促进作用。以上结论揭示了中欧班列开通对产业升级的积极作用,拓展了关于中欧班列开通经济效应的研究,对班列后续建设规划具有一定参考价值。

Industrial Upgrading is the key to achieving high-quality economic development. This paper takes the launch of the China Railway Express as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the multi-period DID model to investigate the impact and mechanism of the CR Express on industrial upgrading. The results show that the CR Express has significantly promoted the industrial upgrading of the regions through which it runs. After considering a series of factors such as endogenous problems, the conclusion is still robust, and the promotion effect is mainly achieved by innovation driven, financial development and trade growth. The results of heterogeneity test show that the launch of the CR Express has a more significant impact on the industrial upgrading in the central and western regions, and the CR Express’ s presence in the central region, transportation corridor and inland FTZs has a strong industrial upgrading effect. The expansibility analysis shows that base on the perspective of industrial upgrading, the development of CR Express after the unified brand is sustainable. At the same time, good cost control and the relationship between the central and local governments also contribute to the economic effect of the CR Express. However, the vicious game of local governments hinders the promotion of the CR Express for industrial upgrading. This paper reveals the positive effect of the launch of the CR Express on industrial upgrading and extends the research literature on the economic effect of the launch of the CR Express, which has reference value for the follow-up construction planning of the CR Express.