人口迁移、技术追赶与中国内外经济循环——基于世界动力学模型的理论分析

Population migration, technology catch-up and the internal external cycle: a theoretical analysis based on the framework of the world dynamics model

国际国内经济循环是一个多重因素相互嵌套的复杂系统,传统的新古典经济学分析方法难以揭示多个变量间的相互作用,世界动力学模型则能够将复杂的世界浓缩为多个变量相互反馈的闭合系统,以明晰变量之间的嵌套关系。利用世界动力学模型,从人口迁移与技术追赶切入,对中国内外经济循环的多层嵌套关系进行了理论分析。研究发现,在"两个经济循环"的多层反馈和嵌套关系中,人口迁移、技术追赶是最为关键的变量。在国内循环中,人口迁移对于发达地区与外围地区人口的双向流动和刺激经济增长有显著的作用;而在国内国际双循环中,前沿技术公开程度、信息与制度的不确定性对企业资金配置效率的影响呈现收敛状态。为此,重塑国内经济大循环,需要适度的人口跨地区流动,引导生产要素在地区间更富有效率地配置;而要重塑国际经济大循环,则需要高度重视信息与制度的不确定性,最为关键的是要有序引导发达地区企业的资金投向对世界前沿技术的追赶和学习。

The international and domestic economic cycle is a complex system with multiple factors nested inside each other. The traditional neoclassical analysis method is difficult to reveal the interactions of multiple variables, whereas the world dynamics model condenses the complex world into a closed system with multiple variables feeding back on each other insuch a way as to clarify the transmission mechanism between the variables. Based on this, this paper constructs a theoretical analysis of the multi-layered nested relationships in China’s internal and external economic cycle by using the world dynamics model framework, taking population migration and technology catch-up as the breakthrough variables. We find that population migration and technology catch-up are the key variables in the multi-level feedback relationship of the "two economic cycles". Within the domestic cycle, population migration has an obvious effect on the two-way flow of population between developed and developing regions and stimulating economic growth. In the domestic and international double cycle, the impact of information and institutional uncertainty on capital allocation efficiency presents a convergence state. Therefore, to reshape the domestic economic cycle, we should pay more attention to guiding population flow across regions to allocate the relevant factors among regions more efficiently;while to reshape the international economic cycle, we also need to pay attention to the uncertainty of information and system, and orderly guide the funds of enterprises in developed regions to catch up with and learn the world’s cutting-edge technology.