科技金融政策的产业结构升级效果及异质性分析——基于“科技和金融结合试点”的准自然实验

The efficiency and heterogeneousness of upgrading industrial structure under science and technology financial policy: a quasi-natural experiment base on “the pilot of combining science and technology with finance”

以我国2011年实施的科技和金融结合试点政策作为准自然实验,基于2003—2018年285个地级市面板数据,采用多时点双重差分法评估了该科技金融政策对试点地区产业结构优化升级的影响效果,并对其作用路径进行了探究。结论表明:第一,科技和金融结合试点政策对试点地区产业结构高度化效率和产业结构合理化具有显著的改善作用,但对产业结构高度化质量并未表现出明显的作用效果。第二,科技和金融结合试点政策的产业结构调整效果在东部地区较为显著,而在中西部地区并不显著。第三,科技和金融结合试点政策的实施会提高一线和二线城市产业结构高度化效率,会促进三线城市产业结构高度化质量的提升,还会推动二线城市产业结构的合理化进程。第四,加大财政科技投入和提高地方金融发展水平来引导金融市场支持科技创新,是科技和金融结合试点政策推动产业结构优化升级的有效实现路径。

Based on the 2003—2018 panel data for 285 prefecture-level cities,this paper uses the pilot policy of combining science and technology with finance implemented in 2011 in China as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the time-varying DID method to evaluate the impact of science and technology financial policies on the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure.The results are as follows.Firstly,the pilot policy of combining science and technology with finance has a significant role in promoting the efficiency and rationalization of the industrial structure in the pilot area,but it has not shown obvious effects on the quality of the industrial structure.Secondly,the effect of the science and technology financial policy on adjusting industrial structure is more pronounced in the eastern region than in the central and western regions.Thirdly,the implementation of the science and technology financial policy will improve the efficiency of the industrial structure of first-and second-tier cities,improve the quality of the industrial structure of third-tier cities,and promote the rationalization of the industrial structure of second-tier cities.Finally,increasing financial investment in science and technology,as well as increasing the level of local financial development to guide the financial market to support technological innovation,are effective ways to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure through the pilot policy of combining science and technology with finance.