“一带一路”倡议促进了中国产业结构升级吗?——基于285个城市的双重差分检验

Has the Belt and Road Initiative promoted the upgrading of China’s industrial structure?A difference-in-differences test based on 285 cities of China

利用285个城市2008—2017年的数据,采用双重差分法研究"一带一路"倡议对城市产业结构升级的影响。研究发现:"一带一路"倡议提高了城市产业结构层次系数和产业结构高度化水平,且对后者的促进效应具有动态增长趋势,但对产业结构合理化的影响不显著;与沿线国家的城市建立友好城市关系提高了产业结构层次系数和产业结构高度化水平,开通中欧班列只提高了产业结构高度化水平,位于"一带一路"的节点和枢纽对产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化都具有促进作用;"一带一路"倡议提高了东部、中部地区的产业结构层次系数和产业结构高度化水平,在西部地区只对产业结构高度化具有促进作用。进一步的机制检验发现,"一带一路"倡议可以通过技术提升效应、产业转移效应和第三产业发展效应促进城市产业结构升级。研究结论为我国通过"一带一路"建设促进城市产业结构升级和经济高质量发展提供了参考和借鉴。

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the upgrading of urban industrial structures is studied by using difference-in-differences with data from 285 cities for the period 2008—2017.The findings are as follows.The Belt and Road Initiative has promoted the improvement of industrial structure hierarchy coefficient and industrial structure advancement of China’s urban,and the promotion effect on the latter has a dynamic growth trend,but the impact on rationalization of industrial structure is not significant.The establishment of sister-city relations with cities in countries along the route has improved the industrial structure hierarchy coefficient and industrial structure advancement,while the launch of the China Railway Express(CR Express)has just upgraded the industrial structure advancement.Being located at the nodes and hubs of the Belt and Road has a catalytic role to play in both industrial structure advancement and industrial structure rationalization.The Initiative has accelerated the industrial structure hierarchy coefficient and industrial structure advancement in the eastern and central regions,while has only contributed to the industrial structure advancement in the western region.Further mechanism test reveals that the Belt and Road Initiative manages to improve the upgrading of urban industrial structures through technology promotion effects,industrial transfer effects and tertiary industry development effects.The conclusions of the study provide a reference for China leveling up the urban industrial structure and high-quality economic development through the Belt and Road Initiative.