基于Bayesian体系融合的新型弹药消耗预计方法

New Ammunition Consumption Prediction Method Based on Bayesian System Fusion

提出了基于Bayesian体系融合的新型弹药消耗预计方法。分析了影响新型弹药消耗的关键微观因素,并按权重生成其体系贡献度计算模型,将单因素影响下的弹药消耗量试验样本进行体系融合,再与现场试验数据融合,预计复杂因素影响下的新型弹药消耗量。以某新型弹药侵彻效应数据为依托,通过多因素分析方法得到弹体入射角度、弹道终点速度两个关键因素,运用该方法统计推断出目标达到重度毁伤时的弹药消耗量,验证该方法的科学性和可行性。

A new ammunition consumption prediction method based on Bayesian system fusion was proposed.It analyzed the key microscopic factors affecting the consumption of new ammunition,and generated its system contribution calculation model according to the weight.The sample of ammunition consumption under the influence of single factor was integrated into the system,and then merged with the field test data to predict the consumption of new ammunition under the influence of complex factors.Based on the data of penetration effect of some ammunition,the two key factors of the incident angle of the projectile and the end point velocity of the ballistic were obtained by multi-factor analysis.The method was used to statistically infer the amount of ammunition consumed when the target reaches severe damage,and the scientific and feasibility of the method was verified.