面向新发展格局的市场潜能测度分析

Urbanmarket potential measurement analysis for the new development pattern

在落实新发展格局战略部署与应对外部环境不确定性冲击的双重背景下,国内大循环的主导地位逐步凸显,传统的沿海区位优势相对趋弱,我国未来经济发展的增长极有待重新识别,原本以地理为核心影响因素的市场潜能衡量方法亟待更新。构建面向新发展格局的市场潜能测算方法——“改进法”,对比运用已有研究中的“传统法”,多维度分析了我国246个地级市的市场潜能。结果表明:市场潜能在融合了地理距离、制度距离、对外贸易依存度等因素后,其沿海城市区位条件的优势渐趋衰减,沿海地理因素对城市发展的影响程度有所减弱,我国市场潜能中心呈现整体北移的趋势,新中部地区极有可能成为我国未来经济发展的新增长极。市场潜能在省域内存在较大的地区差异,一部分省份需避免低水平平衡,另一部分省份内部的平衡性则有待进一步提高。

Under the dual effect of the strategic deployment of the“double cycle”pattern and the impact of external environment uncertainty,the dominant position of the domestic major cycle is gradually highlighted,while the traditional location advantage is gradually weakened.The market potential measurement system,which originally took geography as the core factor,needs to be updated.Using the“traditional method”and the“improved method”to form the new development pattern,this paper calculates and analyzes the market potential of each city in China.The results show that the superiority of urban location conditions is weakened and the influence of geographical factors on urban development is attenuated after the integration of geographical distance,institutional distance and foreign trade dependence.The market potential center of China is moving northward as a whole,and the new central region is likely to become the new growth pole of China’s future economic development.There are large regional differences in market potential,some provinces need to avoid the low-level balance of development,and the balance of development in some provinces need to be further improved.