人民币汇率传递的金融渠道——理论分析与实证检验

Financial Channels of RMB Exchange Rate Transmission——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

本文根据中国涉外金融联系特征,构建理论模型分析人民币汇率波动影响中国经济的金融传导渠道,并利用中国经济数据实证检验这种金融渠道的存在性与具体作用机制。结果表明,人民币汇率波动通过金融渠道对中国经济产生显著的影响;这种影响比贸易渠道的影响大,且作用方向相反;对于具体作用机制,虽然中国持有巨额外汇储备,但人民币汇率波动通过外币资产的估值效应对中国经济的影响非常有限,主要还是通过企业和银行资产负债表上外币负债的变化来影响中国经济。

Based on the characteristics of China’s foreign-related financial links,the authors of this paper construct a theoretical model to analyze the financial transmission channels of RMB exchange rate fluctuations affecting China’s economy,and use China’s economic data to empirically test the existence and specific mechanism of the financial channels.The results of the paper show that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a significant impact on China’s economy through financial channels;the influence is greater than that of trade channels,but in opposite direction;as for the specific mechanism,although China holds a large amount of foreign exchange reserves,the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s economy is very limited through the valuation effect of foreign currency assets,but mainly through changes in foreign currency liabilities on the balance sheets of enterprises and banks.