美国次贷危机大系统因素分析——对中国防范金融风险的启示

Systemic Factor Analysis of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis——The Enlightenment to Financial Risk Prevention in China

本文从大系统的视角,分析2008年美国爆发"次贷危机"的五个主要因素及其相互影响:(1)金融市场结构问题,美国金融市场的多层次化、衍生化,给危机的产生提供舞台;(2)货币政策问题,给危机提供宽松的资金供给;(3)房地产市场衍生化问题,房地产贷款的债务证券化可以衍生交易;(4)微观机制问题,中介机构运用金融衍生化机制,超越法律范畴;(5)公司治理机理问题,美国的公司治理以业绩或市值的高低激励高管。这五个因素共同完成了由次贷→引发次贷危机→演化成金融危机和经济危机的过程。

From the perspective of large-scale system,this paper analyzes the five main factors and their mutual influences of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States:(1)the financial market structure,characterized by multilevel and derivatization,provides a stage for the emergence of the crisis;(2)the monetary policy provides a loose supply of funds for the crisis;(3)the real estate market allows the real estate loans to be securitized and derived;(4)intermediaries are unregulated in using financial derivatives;(5)corporate governance in the US offers performance or the market value incentive to the executive.These five factors jointly cause the process of subprime mortgages→the subprime mortgage crisis→the financial and economic crisis.