双向跨境投资协调下的“收入漏出”与制造业技术结构升级

Coordination of the Two-Way Cross-Border Investment, Income Leakage and the Technological Restructure of the Manufacturing Industry

本文从我国国际直接投资内流与外流水平差异现象入手,利用空间经济均衡模型证实了引进外资与对外投资的不平衡带来的"收入净漏出"会降低本地的需求水平,削弱本地对于制造业的区位吸引力,进而延缓技术密集型产品和生产环节向该地区的转移。并基于研发投入强度的分解构建产品结构与产业链结构指数,利用面板门限回归方法对我国各地区双向跨境投资协调与制造业技术结构升级之间的关系进行了检验。结果表明,双向跨境投资的协调总体上可以通过缓解"收入漏出"促进地区制造业,特别是市场化特征更为明显的民营企业的产品结构和产业链结构升级,但受产业导向政策影响,其对外资企业产品结构升级的促进作用并不显著;双向跨境投资协调的技术结构升级效应在经济与技术基础较好的东部地区更为明显;从动态趋势来看,双向跨境投资协调对于产品结构升级的效应呈下降趋势,但对于产业链结构升级的影响在逐年上升。

Based on the fact that the inflow direct investment far exceeds its outflow level in Chinese economy,this paper proves that the imbalance of inflow FDI and outflow FDI will decrease the demand and regional attraction to the manufacturing industry through the"income leakage"effect,and then delay the transfer of technology intensive products and production links to the region.On this basis,this paper constructs the index of product structure and industrial chain structure based on the intensity of R&D investment,and tests the relationship between the two-way cross-border investment coordination and the upgrading of manufacturing technology structure by using the panel threshold regression method.The results show that the coordination of cross-border investment promoted the upgrading of industry chain structure among all kinds of sectors by alleviating income leakage;but disturbed by industry-oriented policies and the difference of income-effect,this positive effect is not obvious in the upgrading of product structure,especially for foreign-funded firms.The upgrading effect of technology structure brought by the coordination of two-way cross-border investment is more obvious in the eastern and central regions which have better economic and technological basis;the effect on product structure upgrading shows a downward trend,while the effect on the upgrading of industrial chain structure is increasing year by year.