国有资本划拨养老保险与公共政策目标治理

State-Owned Capital Allocation to the Pension Fund and Public Policy Target Governance

本文构建了一个内生生育率的三期世代交叠模型,引入国有资本划拨养老保险、公共教育和生育补贴机制,考察在养老保险缴费率不断下行的背景下,政府能否利用国有资本划拨机制同时实现经济增长和社会保障两大公共政策目标。通过参数校准和数值模拟,本文发现利用国有资本划拨机制来配合养老保险"降费"可以在保证养老金替代率不变的前提下提高经济增长率,但相关操作具有一定局限性。从公共政策目标治理的角度来看,政府仍然无法同时最大化经济增长率和养老金替代率,因此必须进行权衡。若选择最大化经济增长率,则养老金替代率只能维持在"降费"前的水平;若选择最大化养老金替代率,则经济增长率将有所提高。无论政府采取何种权衡方案,随着养老保险缴费率的降低,其对经济的影响将趋同。基于主要结论,本文还提出了相关政策建议:政府需要关注"降费"可能引起的公共政策目标冲突,应当建立国有资本划拨的动态调整策略,并在合理制定公共政策目标的基础上进行充分权衡,从而选择更符合国情的发展道路。

This paper constructs a three-period OLG model of endogenous fertility,and introduces the mechanism of state-owned capital allocation to the pension fund,public education and fertility subsidy,to discuss whether the government can use the state-owned capital allocation mechanism to achieve economic growth and social security targets simultaneously against the background of the continuous decline of contribution rate.Through parameter calibration and numerical simulation,this paper finds that using the state-owned capital allocation mechanism together with the"fee reduction"can improve the economic growth rate on the premise that the pension replacement rate remains unchanged.From the perspective of the governance of public policy targets,the government cannot optimize economic growth rate and pension replacement rate at the same time.Therefore,the two public policy targets must be balanced.If the economic growth rate is maximized,the pension replacement rate can only be maintained at the level before the reduction of contribution rate.If the pension replacement rate is maximized,the economic growth rate will be increased.However,the economic impact of different tradeoffs will converge with the reduction of the contribution rate.Based on the main conclusions,the paper puts forward the following policy recommendations.First,the government needs to realize that the decline of contribution rate will cause conflicts between the public policy targets.Second,the government should use the state-owned capital allocation mechanism reasonably and dynamically adjust state-owned capital allocation to the pension fund.Third,the government should balance different targets on the basis of reasonable public policy objectives and choose a development path more suited to China’s national conditions.