家庭部门杠杆变动对经济增长的影响分析

Impacts of Household Sector’s Leverage Changes on Economic Growth Rate

在供给侧结构性改革进程中,家庭部门杠杆变动对经济增长的影响成为学术界关注的重点。基于1975—2018年103个国家和地区的数据,本文对比分析了家庭部门杠杆水平和杠杆增速变化对经济增长的影响。在此基础上,探究了家庭部门杠杆增速对经济增长影响的理论机制,并进一步考察了城市化和老龄化对家庭部门杠杆增速与经济增长之间关联的影响。研究发现,家庭部门杠杆增速对经济增长存在明显的抑制效应,而家庭部门杠杆水平对经济增长不存在明显的影响;家庭部门杠杆增速主要通过影响经济体生产率增长和家庭消费增长作用于经济增长;经济体城市化进程的加速有助于抑制家庭部门杠杆增速对经济增长的负面影响,老龄化进程的加速则会放大家庭部门杠杆增速对经济增长的负面影响。本文的研究表明,在判断家庭部门杠杆变动的经济效应时,更应关注家庭部门杠杆变动速度,尽可能通过可控的手段稳定家庭部门杠杆变动,避免家庭部门过快加杠杆。同时,应关注发展进程中城市化、老龄化等经济结构变动对家庭杠杆增速与经济增长之间关联的调节作用,采取差异化的监管手段,避免"一刀切"的政策误区。

As China is advancing the supply-side structural reform,the impacts of the household sector’s leverage changes on economic growth have attracted much attention from the academia.Based on the data of 103 countries and regions from 1975 to 2018,this paper comparatively analyzes the impacts of changes in the household sector’s leverage level and growth rate on economic growth.On this basis,it explores the theoretical mechanism of the impact of household sector’s leverage growth rate on economic growth,and further investigates the impact of urbanization and population aging on the relationship between the leverage growth and economic growth.Our research shows that the acceleration of the household sector’s leverage growth will significantly inhibit economic growth,while the change to the household leverage level does not have an obvious impact on economic growth.And the growth rate of household sector’s leverage mainly affects economic growth by influencing the growth of productivity and household consumption.This paper also finds that the acceleration of urbanization can mitigate the negative impact of leverage growth on economic growth,while the acceleration of population aging can amplify it.Our research shows that when judging the economic effects of changes in the household sector’s leverage,we should pay more attention to the growth rate of the household sector’s leverage and try to curb its fluctuation.At the same time,we should pay attention to the adjusting effect of urbanization and population aging on the relationship between the household sector’s leverage growth and economic growth,and adopt differentiated regulatory measures to avoid the"one-size-fits-all"policy.