外债规模、政府债务风险与经济增长

External Debt Scale, Government Debt Risk and Economic Growth

近年来,我国面临经济下行压力持续增加而政府债务负担不断攀升的局面,那么政府部门能否进一步加杠杆从而确保积极财政政策的可持续性成为各界高度关注的重要问题。文章基于我国政府债务中的外债占比偏低的典型特征,收集了全球35个主要经济体2001-2018年的季度数据,从外债占比视角对这一问题进行了系统分析。研究表明,一方面,政府债务中的外债占比偏低有助于降低系统性金融风险爆发的概率,因此可以视为政府债务问题的“安全垫”,这有助于拓宽政府部门的加杠杆空间;另一方面,政府债务中的外债占比偏低会通过“外债占比偏低-对投资的拉动作用减弱-政府债务对经济的推动作用减弱”和“外债占比偏低-对全要素生产率的拉动作用减弱-政府债务对经济的推动作用减弱”这两条机制,弱化政府债务对经济增长的推动作用。因此,外债占比偏低是我国在“防风险”方面的一大优势,使得中央政府具有进一步加杠杆的空间,从而确保积极财政政策的可持续性;但是,政府债务过于依赖内债也在一定程度上制约了其在“稳增长”方面的作用。未来我国可以适度优化外债规模,更好地在“防风险”与“稳增长”中寻求动态平衡。

In recent years,the downward pressure on China’s economic growth has continued to increase,which requires more proactive fiscal policies.However,China’s government debt has also risen rapidly.In 2019,China’s government debt ratio reached 54.2%,which was higher than the average level of emerging economies.If the implicit debt problem of local governments is further considered,the debt pressure of the Chinese government will be more serious.Therefore,whether the government can further increase leverage to ensure the sustainability of proactive fiscal policies has become an important issue of high concern.Based on the typical characteristics of China’s low external debt ratio,this paper collects quarterly data of35 major economies in the world from 2001 to 2018,and makes a systematic analysis of this issue from the perspective of external debt ratio.The results show that,on the one hand,the low proportion of external debt in government debt does help to reduce the probability of the outbreak of systemic financial risks.Therefore,it can be regarded as a“safe cushion”for government debt,which helps to broaden the room for the government to increase leverage.On the other hand,the low proportion of external debt in government debt will result in“low proportion of external debt-the pulling effect on investment weakened-the effect of government debt on promoting economy weakened”and“low proportion of external debt-the pulling effect on total factor productivity weakened-the effect of government debt on promoting economy weakened”.The two mechanisms will weaken the role of government debt in promoting economic growth,which has been neglected by previous studies.Based on the results,this paper believes that the low proportion of external debt is a major advantage of China in“risk prevention”,which gives the central government more room to increase leverage,thus ensuring the sustainability of proactive fiscal policies.However,excessive reliance on domestic debt also restricts the role of government debt in“stabilizing growth”to a certain extent.In the future,China can appropriately optimize the scale of foreign debt,so as to better seek dynamic balance between“risk prevention”and“stabilizing growth”.The main contribution of this paper is reflected in two aspects:Firstly,although previous studies have formed a preliminary understanding that the low proportion of foreign debt may help to reduce the risk of government debt,there is a lack of empirical research.The empirical research of this paper confirms that the low proportion of foreign debt in government debt is indeed helpful to reduce the probability of systemic financial risks.It is a useful supplement to the existing research.Secondly,in view of the typical characteristics of the low proportion of foreign debt in China’s government debt,we should not only see its advantages in preventing financial risks,but also be alert to its potential adverse effects on economic growth.These views have been ignored in previous studies.