资本偏向型技术进步新特征及其对劳动力市场的影响机制研究

New Characteristics of Capital-biased Technical Change and Its Influence Mechanism on the Labor Market

随着人工智能等自动化资本投入的增加,技术进步偏向会呈现新的特征,已有文献缺乏对资本偏向型技术进步新特征的关注,也缺乏对新型资本偏向型技术进步影响劳动力市场机制的进一步探索。文章基于超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型,利用2012-2019年制造业上市企业数据测度了制造业的技术进步偏向,实证检验了制造业技术进步偏向对企业劳动力市场的影响以及作用机制。研究发现:(1)中国制造业技术进步偏向于自动化资本。(2)制造业企业自动化资本偏向型技术进步对劳动力需求产生了替代效应,生产率和产出规模效应是两个影响渠道。(3)制造业企业自动化资本偏向型技术进步能通过生产率效应和技能结构效应来提升劳动力工资水平。(4)基于行业关联效应,制造业上游(下游)企业自动化资本偏向型技术进步通过推动下游(上游)企业的技术进步,进而对下游(上游)企业产生就业替代效应和工资补偿效应。可见,大力推动自动化资本偏向型技术进步,加快提升劳动力技能水平,扩大生产率和产出规模效应对劳动力市场的积极作用,重视产业链的传导和协同效应,是适应“机器换人”,实现稳就业和高质量就业的重要途径。

With the increasing of artificial intelligence and other automated capital investment,the bias of technical change will show new characteristics.The existing literature neither pays attention to the new characteristics of capital-biased technical change,nor further explores the labor market mechanism influenced by the new capital-biased technical change.Based on the Stochastic Frontier Model in the form of Translog Production Function,this paper measures the bias index of technical change in manufacturing industries by using the data of listed manufacturing enterprises from 2012 to 2019,and empirically studies the influencing mechanism of biased technical change in manufacturing on the labor market.The results show that:(1)The technical change of manufacturing industry in China is biased towards automated capital.(2)The automated capital-biased technical change of manufacturing has a substitution effect on the total employment,and the productivity effect and the output scale effect are two influencing channels.(3)The automated capital-biased technical change of manufacturing improves the level of labor wage through the productivity effect and the skill structure effect.(4)Compared with state-owned manufacturing enterprises,this kind of technical change has a greater negative effect on non-state-owned enterprises;compared with the eastern region,the technical change of manufacturing in the central and western regions has a greater substitution effect on labor demand;compared with high-tech industries,the substitution effect on low-tech industries is greater.At the same time,the automated capital-biased technical change of state-owned,eastern and high-tech manufacturing enterprises significantly improves the average wage of labor,while the impact on non-state-owned,central and western and low-technology manufacturing enterprises is not significant.(5)Based on the industry linkage effect,the automated capital-biased technical change in the upstream(downstream)industry of manufacturing induces the automated capital-biased technical change in the downstream(upstream)industry,and then produces the employment substitution effect and the wage compensation effect on the downstream(upstream)industry.Therefore,to vigorously promote the development of automated capital-biased technical change,upgrading labor skills,amplifying the positive effect of productivity and output scale on the labor market,and paying attention to the conduction and synergistic effect of the industrial chain are important ways to adapt to the machine replacement,achieve stable employment and promote high-quality employment.