“一带一路”倡议与对外直接投资:“五通”作用机制分析

The“Belt and Road”Initiative and China’s OFDI:An Analysis of the“Five Connectivity”Mechanism

与以往西方发达国家推动的经济全球化不同,“一带一路”倡议促进“一带一路”沿线国家投资增长的特有机制应该是“五通”。文章以理论模型构建和分析为先导,在科学构建“五通”指标体系并进行有效测度的基础上,利用95个“一带一路”沿线国家2011-2017年的样本数据,采取中介效应模型对“五通”的作用机制进行检验。实证结果表明:第一,“一带一路”倡议确实可以通过“五通”作用机制对中国在“一带一路”沿线国家开展的对外直接投资起到显著的促进作用。第二,从“五通”分指标层面的作用机制看,政策沟通和民心相通可以起到及时的促进作用,但设施联通、贸易畅通和资金融通的促进作用还未显著呈现。第三,从基于分类样本的异质性检验结果看,相比于海上丝绸之路沿线国家,“五通”政策在陆上丝绸之路沿线国家中的实践效果更强;相比于“一带一路”沿线的低收入国家和中等偏低收入国家,中国对“一带一路”沿线的高收入国家和中等偏高收入国家开展对外直接投资的促进效果更强;相比于“一带一路”沿线的其他洲,中国对“一带一路”沿线的亚洲地区国家和地区开展对外直接投资的促进效果更强;相比于非亚投行成员,中国对亚投行成员开展对外直接投资的促进效果更强。

In the previous open development,China mainly participated in the global value chain in an unbalanced way of“bringing in”and made great achievements in development.However,facing the profound changes in the current international and domestic environment,it is particularly important to“go out”and carry out OFDI to build the global value chain actively.Existing literature has pointed out that it may be a feasible way to break through the labor division of global value chains led by developed countries by relying on the“Belt and Road”Initiative.Now,the more critical question is why the“Belt and Road”Initiative can promote China’s OFDI.This paper takes theoretical analysis as the forerunner.Then,on the basis of scientifically constructing and measuring the“five connectivity”indicator,this paper uses the sample data of 95 countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2011 to 2017 and the mediation effect model to test the mechanism.The empirical test results show that:First,the“Belt and Road”Initiative can indeed promote China’s OFDI in countries along the“Belt and Road”through the“five connectivity”mechanism.Second,from the perspective of the sub-indicators of“five connectivity”indicator,policy connectivity and people-to-people connectivity can play a timely role,but the promotion of facility connectivity,trade connectivity and financial connectivity has obvious lag.Third,from the heterogeneity test results based on classified samples,the mechanism of“five connectivity”is stronger in the countries along the land Silk Road than in the countries along the maritime Silk Road;the promotion effect on high-income countries and middle-high-income countries along the“Belt and Road”is more significant than that on low-income countries and middle-low-income countries along the“Belt and Road”;the promotion effect on Asian countries is better than that on other continents;the promotion effect on member countries of the Asian Investment Bank is better than that on non-Asian-Investment-Bank members.The findings of this paper not only revealve and affirmve the key role and significance of interconnectivity under the“Belt and Road”Initiative,but also have important policy implications on how to make better use of the investment promotion effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative through the“five connectivity”,to help China build a balanced development pattern that places equal emphasis on“bringing in”and“going out”in the new stage,and ultimately promote the building and optimization of global value chains.