经济周期和财政政策周期交互视角下的乘数效应研究——基于全国层面和省级层面的分析

Research on the Multiplier Effect from the Perspective of Interaction between Business Cycle and Fiscal Cycle: Based on the Analysis at the National and Provincial Levels

在面临如亚洲金融风暴、全球金融危机和新冠肺炎疫情等巨大负向外部冲击时,我国逆周期的财政政策能产生明显的效果。为厘清经济周期和财政政策的关系,文章首先运用汉密尔顿滤波方法估计我国的产出缺口和财政周期,然后运用时变参数向量自回归模型从宏观层面测度我国经济周期和财政政策周期之间的时变交互影响,最后运用非线性的面板工具变量局部投影模型从省级维度测度经济周期和财政周期视角下的财政支出乘数。研究结果表明:第一,从宏观层面看,亚洲金融风暴、全球金融危机和新冠肺炎疫情爆发等事件对我国经济周期的负面冲击促使财政政策逆周期扩张,而财政周期扩张对经济周期复苏具有显著的推动作用;第二,从省级层面看,地方财政支出乘数在经济紧缩时期更高,这个规律对东、中、西部三大经济区域同样适用;第三,无论是从宏观层面还是省级层面,顺周期财政政策都有较高的时间占比,而顺周期的财政政策是引致中国经济周期波动的重要政策因素;第四,我国地方政府实施的财政政策可能没有对居民消费产生显著的促进作用,而投资乘数却保持较高水平,这表明我国财政政策对经济增长的乘数效应主要通过投资渠道实现。文章结论对理解我国经济周期和财政政策周期之间的关联机制具有重要启示意义,同时也指出财政政策逆周期调控的必要性以及未来优化财政支出结构从而更好地引领居民消费的迫切性。

From the perspective of most emerging market economies in the world and China itself,the pro-cyclical characteristics of fiscal policy are a reality that has occurred(or is occurring).What impact does pro-cyclical fiscal policy have on the business cycle,and what is the difference between its economic effect and counter-cyclical fiscal policy?When considering business cycle and fiscal cycle,will the effectiveness of fiscal expenditure change significantly?Further,through what channels does China’s fiscal policy act on economic growth?Clarifying these problems not only helps to understand the internal correlation mechanism between business cycle and fiscal cycle,but also has important expanding significance for the theory of fiscal multiplier,and deepens the understanding of China’s local government fiscal policy behavior.This paper comprehensively employs Hamilton filter,TVP-VAR model and instrumental variable local projection method,and carries out relevant research from the perspective of China’s macro level and provincial level.It is found that:Firstly,in the face of major negative impact,business cycle contraction promotes fiscal policy expansion,and fiscal policy expansion plays a significant role in promoting economic recovery.Secondly,from the provincial level,the multiplier of local fiscal expenditure is higher in the period of economic contraction,which is also applicable to the three economic regions of the eastern,central and western regions.Thirdly,pro-cyclical fiscal policy is an important policy factor leading to China’s business cycle fluctuations,especially in the eastern and central regions.The multiplier effect of pro-cyclical fiscal policy is very significant.Lastly,the fiscal policy of local governments mainly acts on economic growth through investment channels,but has little significant impact on residents’consumption.The research of this paper provides three policy implications:Firstly,considering the information of regional business cycle,we should improve the counter-cyclical and accurate regulation of fiscal policy.Secondly,we should continue to maintain the“high multiplier effect”of fiscal policy on investment,optimize the fiscal expenditure structure,and give play to the leading role of fiscal policy on residents’consumption,so as to promote the quality and efficiency of fiscal policy.Lastly,to carry out the cross-cycle optimal design of fiscal policy,we must adhere to counter-cyclical regulation,promote the quality and efficiency of fiscal policy,and ensure the long-term sustainability of fiscal policy.