收入分配视角下中国“扩内需”的政策协同研究

A Research on the Policy Coordination of “Expanding Domestic Demand” in China:From the Perspective of Income Distribution

在我国扩大内需的关键时期,由劳动者收入分配问题引发的内需波动现象突出,而宏观政策发力可能主要参照居民收入状态,来配置政策操作机制。因此,对新时期工资形成机制和政策协同机制的探究,能够为我国找准内需提振的方向和搭建内需提振的政策指南提供理论支撑。文章在异质性家庭DSGE模型中引入劳动工资形成过程,一方面检验劳动者议价能力和工资粘性对内需的影响,以及二者受其他外生冲击的影响;另一方面检验财政货币政策、最低工资标准政策协同在缓解外生冲击对内需不利影响中的效果,并且在居民部门中进行政策协同机制的验证。研究发现:一是我国内需情况与居民收入分配有关,主要表现为劳动者议价能力不足和工资粘性对经济的消极影响,并且这种影响随着非李嘉图等价家庭比例的增加而愈加明显;二是政策间协同可以有效抑制外生冲击所导致的内需波动,进而增进社会福利,其中协同机制下的财政政策效果更为明显;三是要达到最优的政策协同效果,需要考虑政策目标的平衡和政策搭配的时机。文章从收入分配角度分析了我国内需情况,提供了政策协同向度的模拟,为设计"扩内需"的针对性政策提供了参考依据。

The world’s economic systems have been repeatedly hit by the COVID-19 epidemic,which has led to the resurgence of domestic demand problems and made it more complicated.What is the root cause of domestic demand problems and how will it be solved?Few studies have responded in a more complete way,but they offer the possibility to take demand issues further.Therefore,it is valuable and practical to observe the state of domestic demand and find ways to boost it from the perspective of income distribution.This paper tests the effect of labor bargaining power shocks and wage stickiness on domestic demand,as well as the effect of the combination of fiscal and monetary policies and minimum wage policies by constructing a heterogeneous household DSGE model that incorporates the wage determination mechanism.In addition,the previous results are corroborated by using residential sector survey data.The results show that:Firstly,sluggish domestic demand in China is related to the uneven distribution of residents’income,and it is more obvious in low-income groups.Secondly,policy coordination can deal with sluggish domestic demand,and fiscal policies are most effective.To expand domestic demand,this paper suggests that:Firstly,we should improve income distribution,including the establishment of a flexible wage adjustment mechanism,the protection of labor bargaining power,etc.Secondly,we should build a combination regulatory framework of various macro policies,and supplement black box testing,policy target balancing,policy matching timing,etc.The possible contribution of this paper lies in that:Firstly,it presents the solutions of domestic demand problems from the perspective of income distribution,which provides a feasible idea for strengthening China’s domestic demand and policy regulation.Secondly,it builds a heterogeneous household DSGE model that includes intra-labor splits,wage negotiations and wage stickiness,as distinct from the New Keynesian model,which is a new attempt and can explain domestic demand volatility in China.Thirdly,it verifies the feasibility of policy coordination by extrapolating from theory to residential sector behavior analysis,capturing the generalizability of findings.