数字经济发展、经济结构转型与跨越中等收入陷阱

Development of the Digital Economy,Transformation of the Economic Structure and Leaping of the Middle-income Trap

当下,中国经济正处于发展模式转型和新旧动能转换的关键阶段,能否顺利跨越中等收入陷阱已成为普遍关心的重要问题;而以人工智能、区块链、云计算、大数据等数字技术驱动和以数字经济蓬勃兴起为主要内容的第四次工业革命,为中国经济"变道超车"以及跨越中等收入陷阱提供了重要机遇。文章基于经济结构转型的视角研究数字经济发展推动经济增长的理论机理,从需求侧和供给侧两个方面解析了数字经济发展对于经济增长的现实意义,并提出了经济数字化转型趋势下跨越中等收入陷阱的中国方案。研究表明:(1)数字经济与实体经济深度融合所带来的发展方式转变、产业结构优化、增长动能转换是跨越中等收入陷阱的关键。(2)从供给侧来看,数字经济可以从三个方面来提升供给侧的质量与效率,推动供给侧结构性改革与经济增长,即供给体系的优质、高效、多样化,创新体系的网络化、开放化、协同化,制造模式的模块化、柔性化、社会化。(3)从需求侧来看,数字经济能够通过改变市场投资方向、推动消费升级、培育出口优势来助力"三驾马车"的新动能。(4)顺利跨越中等收入陷阱,应该适应发展阶段演替的基本规律,推动经济增长动力根本性转变;强化数据要素作为数字经济的支撑作用,助推数字经济高质量发展;促进数字经济与实体经济融合,加快数字产业化和产业数字化进程。

At present,China’s economy is in the key stage of the transformation of development mode and the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.Whether it can successfully cross the middle-income trap has become an important issue of general concern.Driven by artificial intelligence,blockchain,cloud computing,big data and other underlying digital technologies,the fourth industrial revolution with the booming digital economy as its main content has provided important opportunities for China’s economy to"overtake"and cross the middle-income trap.In sharp contrast to the booming digital economy,few literatures focus on the impact of digital economy development on crossing the middle-income trap under the background of economic structure transformation.In particular,the research on how to promote high-quality economic development through the supply side and demand side of the economic structure transformation brought by the development of digital economy has not been mentioned.This study shows that:(1)The key to cross the middle-income trap is the transformation of development mode,the optimization of industrial structure,and the transformation of growth momentum brought by the deep integration of digital economy and real economy.(2)From the perspective of the supply side,digital economy can improve the quality and efficiency of the supply side and promote the structural reform and economic growth of the supply side from the following three aspects:First,the supply system is high-quality,efficient and diversified;second,the innovation system is networked,open and collaborative;third,the mode of production is modularized,flexible and socialized.(3)From the demand side,digital economy can help the new momentum of the"troika"by changing the direction of market investment,promoting consumption upgrading and cultivating export advantages.(4)To successfully cross the middle-income trap,we should adapt to the basic law of the succession of development stages,and promote the fundamental transformation of the driving force of economic growth;strengthen the data elements as the supporting role of digital economy,and boost the high-quality development of digital economy;promote the integration of digital economy and real economy,and accelerate the process of digital industrialization and industrial digitization.The possible contributions of this paper are as follows:First,it analyzes the domestic and international situations and challenges faced by China in crossing the middle-income trap,and points out the practical significance of the development of digital economy for China in crossing the middle-income trap.Second,from the perspective of economic structure transformation,it analyzes the potential of quality change,efficiency change and dynamic change of China’s economic development,which points out the direction for the transformation of new and old kinetic energy,the improvement of total factor productivity,and the high-quality development of economy and society.Third,it analyzes the role of digital economy in improving the efficiency of the supply side and accurately matching the supply and demand,and demonstrates the positive impact of digital economy on the supply side from the three aspects of supply system,innovation system and production mode.Fourth,it analyzes the specific ways of digital economy development to revive the demand side"troika",and summarizes the mechanism from the three aspects of market investment direction,consumption upgrading and new export advantages.Fifth,it puts forward a Chinese plan to cross the middle-income trap under the trend of economic digital transformation,which provides theoretical support for the government to formulate relevant policies and cross the middle-income trap.