地方财政压力对城市生产率的异质性影响研究:基于新型城镇化背景的分析

Research on the Heterogeneous Impact of Local Fiscal Pressure on Urban Productivity: Based on the Background of New-type Urbanization

在中国新型城镇化背景下,地方政府的财政压力不断增大,对城市生产率会产生重要影响。在"人的城市化"阶段,作为改革开放与"物的城市化"的累积结果,经济地理的深刻重塑随着地方财政压力增大将释放出城市异质性,并在不同维度上对生产效率产生影响,从而可管窥新时代不平衡、不充分发展矛盾的具体表现。文章根据纳入地方政府行为选择的"规模-密度-距离"三维城市异质性分析思路,以2003-2018年地级以上城市的面板数据为对象,研究地方财政压力对城市生产率的影响是否会因城市属性的差异而产生分化。结果发现:地方财政压力对城市生产率存在着显著的负向影响,财政压力每提高1个单位,城市生产率下降约1.0667个单位;考虑城市异质性的调节效应,地方财政压力总体上会弱化城市规模、密度和距离对生产率的提升作用;具有功能性结构支持和高生产密度的城市表现出较强的抗压能力,而制度因素因其具有矫治资源错配的基础性作用而显得愈发重要。文章的结论对于识别影响和制约城市生产率的异质性因素,分类引导和提升城市发展质量,优化资源配置,加大制度创新力度,促进城镇化顺利转型和区域协调发展等具有启示意义。

Under the background of new-type urbanization and economic structure transformation,the fiscal pressure of local governments in China is increasing constantly,and how this will affect urban productivity needs further study.This paper holds that as the cumulative result of reform and opening policies and"physical urbanization",the profound remodeling of economic geography will release the effect of urban heterogeneity on production efficiency in different dimensions with the increase of local fiscal pressure after entering the stage of"human urbanization".From this angle,we can see the concrete manifestation of the contradiction of unbalanced and inadequate development in the new era.Based on the"scale-density-distance"dimensional urban heterogeneity analysis with local governments’behavior and the panel data of cities above the prefectural level from 2003 to 2018,this paper studies whether the impact of local fiscal pressure on urban productivity will be differentiated by the difference of three types of urban attributes.The study finds that:First,from a national perspective,local fiscal pressure has a significant negative impact on urban productivity,and the contribution of three dimensions of urban heterogeneity to production efficiency is generally inhibited.When other variables remain unchanged,the urban productivity decreases by about 1.0667 units for every unit increase in the gap of local governments’fiscal revenue and expenditure.Second,from the perspective of attribute characteristics of city types,large cities,cities with functional structure support and high production density,coastal cities and cities with high marketization degree have relatively strong ability to resist local fiscal risks.Third,in terms of influence mechanism and path,the heterogeneity of cities will prompt local governments to take different behaviors to deal with fiscal pressure.Due to the particularity of land resources,the strategy of relying on land finance to support fiscal revenue growth is no longer applicable,and coping with fiscal pressure by adjusting fiscal expenditure structure will gradually become a feasible choice.The above conclusions indicate that,as a risk factor,the increase of local fiscal pressure will not only have a negative impact on urban productivity,but also weaken the efficiency contribution of the existing heterogeneity advantages of cities through the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure by local governments,resulting in the artificial distortion of resource allocation and restricting the long-term sustainable growth of cities.This paper verifies the conclusion that the increase of local fiscal pressure will lead to urban productivity differentiation under the background of new-type urbanization,which has enlightening significance for identifying the heterogeneous factors that affect and restrict urban productivity,guiding and improving the quality of urban development by classification,increasing the institutional innovation of optimal allocation of resources,and promoting the smooth transformation of urbanization and regional coordinated development.