中央转移支付的减贫效应评估:基本事实、潜在机制和提升路径

Evaluation of the Poverty Reduction Effect of Central Transfer Payments: Basic Facts, Potential Mechanisms and Promotion Paths

中央"十四五规划和2035年远景目标的建议"明确指出要完善转移支出制度,加大对欠发达地区财力支持和推动西部大开发形成新格局。文章基于1978-2017年中国省级宏观数据,利用西部大开发自然实验识别了中央转移支付在区域和时间维度上的变异,采用双重差分法和三重差分法评估了中央转移支付的减贫效应。研究发现,中央转移支付对西部地区农村居民的减贫效应是存在的。具体而言,中央转移支付可以通过增加对人均农业支出、人均公共服务和人均人力资本的投入发挥减贫效应。进一步表明,在人力资本投资中,相对于教育人力资本投入,对健康的人力资本支出的减贫效果更好。农民基于理性选择的健康投资的收入回报率大于教育投资。此外,地方财政支出中过度偏向基本建设的投资方式会挤出对农业、公共服务和人力资本的支出比例,进而限制了中央转移支付的总体减贫效果。文章认为,通过优化地方财政支出结构和有针对性的惠民专项转移支付等举措,使财政资金向农民人力资本、基本公共服务、就业保障和农业生产等领域倾斜,有利于实现精准扶贫和财政资金的惠民目标,进一步释放中央转移支付的减贫效应。

Since the reform and opening up,in order to deal with the imbalance of regional development,the central government has invested a lot of fiscal transfer payments to the western region,aiming to provide abundant financial support for the western region,so as to improve the level of local infrastructure and public services.However,is the local fiscal expenditure caused by central transfer payments evenly distributed to the investment projects such as infrastructure construction and the supply of social public goods such as health care and education?Is there a bias in local fiscal expenditures that attaches importance to capital construction and ignores micro-resident human capital investment?Furthermore,will this fiscal expenditure structure limit the poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments?This paper focuses on the evaluation of the poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments in the western region from the aspects of basic facts,potential mechanisms and promotion paths.Based on China’s provincial macro data from 1978 to 2017,using the Western Development Natural Experiment to identify the regional and time variability of central transfer payments,this paper uses the DID and DDD methods to evaluate the poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments.The study finds that central transfer payments have a poverty reduction effect on rural residents in the western region.Specifically,central transfer payments can exert a poverty reduction effect by increasing investment in per capita agricultural expenditure,per capita public services and per capita human capital.The measurement decomposition of the poverty reduction effect further shows that,compared with human capital investment in education,the poverty reduction effect of healthy human capital expenditure is better.The return on the income of farmers’health investment based on rational choices is greater than that of education investment.In addition,the research shows that the excessively biased investment in local fiscal expenditures will crowd out the proportion of expenditures on agriculture,public services,and human capital,thereby limiting the overall poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments.This paper believes that through measures such as optimizing the structure of local fiscal expenditures and targeted special transfer payments,fiscal funds can be tilted toward farmers’human capital,basic public services,employment security,and agricultural production,so as to release the poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments.The contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects:First,at the level of empirical research,this paper has discovered the empirical evidence and influence mechanism of the poverty reduction effect of central transfer payments.It not only deepens the research on central transfer payments,but also enriches and expands the research results in the fields of government expenditure structure and poverty governance.Second,at the policy level,based on research findings,this paper provides an optimized path to further release the poverty reduction potential of central transfer payments.It has important practical significance for poverty management in underdeveloped areas,improving the efficiency of fiscal fund utilization and the effect of poverty alleviation.